Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Waalwijk vs Jong PSV

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
Our Tip

Match Events

16' Event
Fage R.
21'
Sub
van der Plas S. In: Kuhn W.
Out: van der Plas S.
34'
Sub
Kuhn W. In: Sidibe S.
Out: Kuhn W.

AI Match Summary

Waalwijk in this Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waalwijk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Waalwijk
35%
Draws
20%
Jong PSV
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Waalwijk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Jong PSV have won more games recently than Waalwijk.
  • Waalwijk are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 80.2%
Waalwijk Clean Sheet 16%
Jong PSV Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waalwijk Jong PSV
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 11 12
Draws 12 5
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 1.96 1.57
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.6
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Jong PSV
2:2
Apr 24, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Jong PSV
4:1
Dec 1, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Waalwijk
3:1
Mar 29, 2019 Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV vs Waalwijk
2:1
Nov 9, 2018 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Jong PSV
3:5

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waalwijk Compare

Top Goalscorer van der Venne R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Fage R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.84

Jong PSV Compare

Top Goalscorer Bouhoudane S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waalwijk 84 / 100
Jong PSV 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waalwijk Jong PSV

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waalwijk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waalwijk's goal record stands at 89% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Jong PSV's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.80 goals per match.

Solid form: Waalwijk remains unbeaten in 5 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Waalwijk VS Jong PSV
1.75 Goals Scored 1.63
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Waalwijk

(Home)
18 Sept
Waalwijk
6 : 1
Maastricht
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Waalwijk
4 : 2
NAC Breda
28 Aug
Waalwijk
2 : 2
Jong PSV
21 Aug
Helmond Sport
1 : 1
Waalwijk
Page 1 of 6

Jong PSV

(Away)
19 Sept
Vitesse
3 : 1
Jong PSV
14 Sept
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong AZ Alkmaar
11 Sept
Helmond Sport
3 : 1
Jong PSV
07 Sept
Jong PSV
3 : 1
Den Bosch
31 Aug
Jong PSV
1 : 1
Jong Ajax
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Den Haag 38 29 2 7 90:37 89
2 Cambuur 38 23 9 6 75:48 78
3 Willem II 38 20 8 10 59:42 68
4 De Graafschap 38 18 9 11 74:58 63
5 Almere City 38 18 4 16 78:63 58
6 Waalwijk 38 16 10 12 71:59 58
7 Jong PSV 38 17 5 16 66:64 56
8 Roda 38 14 13 11 59:54 55
9 Den Bosch 38 14 9 15 65:69 51
10 Dordrecht 38 12 11 15 48:56 47
11 Eindhoven FC 38 14 5 19 51:69 47
12 Jong Utrecht 38 12 10 16 58:62 46
13 Venlo 38 13 6 19 50:58 45
14 FC Emmen 38 12 9 17 58:72 45
15 Vitesse 38 15 11 12 64:55 44
16 TOP Oss 38 11 11 16 54:64 44
17 Jong AZ Alkmaar 38 12 4 22 61:76 40
18 Helmond Sport 38 10 9 19 42:62 39
19 Maastricht 38 9 11 18 41:73 38
20 Jong Ajax 38 9 8 21 50:73 35
Promotion - Eredivisie (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)
Promotion - Eredivisie 2025/2026 (Relegation - Play Offs)