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Waalwijk vs NAC Breda Prediction & H2H Stats

Netherlands Netherlands

Eerste Divisie Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Hillen R.
Own Goal
28'
Greiml L.
37'
Greiml L.

AI Match Summary

The Eerste Divisie game between Waalwijk and NAC Breda finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Waalwijk.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Waalwijk
20%
Draws
33%
NAC Breda
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Waalwijk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and NAC Breda come out ahead of Waalwijk on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Waalwijk's way, sitting at 60%.
  • Regular Eerste Divisie form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Waalwijk Clean Sheet 14%
NAC Breda Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waalwijk NAC Breda
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 9 10
Draws 12 7
Losses 6 12
Goals Scored 1.85 1.41
Goals Conceded 1.37 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 4, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda
4:2
Feb 9, 2025 Eredivisie
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda
5:0
Oct 26, 2024 Eredivisie
NAC Breda vs Waalwijk
4:1
Jul 19, 2023 Club Friendly
NAC Breda vs Waalwijk
2:3
Aug 18, 2020 Club Friendly
Waalwijk vs NAC Breda
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waalwijk Compare

Top Goalscorer van Leeuwen T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Al Mazyani F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

NAC Breda Compare

Top Goalscorer Nassoh M.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waalwijk 57 / 100
NAC Breda 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waalwijk NAC Breda

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waalwijk Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waalwijk found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

NAC Breda let in goals in 86% of their last 29 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.60 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Waalwijk remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Waalwijk VS NAC Breda
2.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.13
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Waalwijk

(Home)
03 Oct
Waalwijk
1 : 1
FC Emmen
26 Sept
Roda
2 : 0
Waalwijk
18 Sept
Waalwijk
6 : 1
Maastricht
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Waalwijk
4 : 2
NAC Breda
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NAC Breda

(Away)
03 Oct
Vitesse
2 : 2
NAC Breda
26 Sept
NAC Breda
4 : 2
Eindhoven FC
20 Sept
De Graafschap
1 : 2
NAC Breda
11 Sept
NAC Breda
2 : 3
Jong Utrecht
04 Sept
Waalwijk
4 : 2
NAC Breda
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Heracles 9 7 1 1 28:12 22
2 Almere City 9 6 1 2 19:7 19
3 Venlo 9 6 0 3 23:14 18
4 FC Emmen 9 5 1 3 19:18 16
5 Maastricht 9 5 1 3 13:19 16
6 Roda 9 4 3 2 9:7 15
7 Waalwijk 9 3 5 1 19:12 14
8 Vitesse 9 4 2 3 15:13 14
9 NAC Breda 9 4 2 3 19:19 14
10 Jong AZ Alkmaar 9 4 1 4 22:17 13
11 FC Volendam 9 4 0 5 20:17 12
12 Jong PSV 9 3 3 3 14:16 12
13 Eindhoven FC 9 3 2 4 15:19 11
14 Helmond Sport 9 2 3 4 15:16 9
15 TOP Oss 9 3 0 6 12:14 9
16 Den Bosch 9 2 2 5 13:18 8
17 Jong Ajax 9 2 2 5 13:22 8
18 Dordrecht 9 2 2 5 13:24 8
19 De Graafschap 9 2 2 5 11:22 8
20 Jong Utrecht 9 2 1 6 15:21 7
Promotion - Eredivisie 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Eredivisie (Relegation - Play Offs)