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World Championship 2026 Cardiff City Stadium

Belgium

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Wales play Belgium in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Belgium averaged 2.31 goals scored and 1 conceded. In past meetings, Wales won 0, Belgium won 3, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 13, 2025 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.38 for Wales and 2.35 for Belgium. This points to a Belgium double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Wales

33%

Draws

37%

Belgium

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Belgium

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Wales picked up more points recently compared to Belgium.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.38 vs 2.35 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Wales Clean Sheet 10%

Belgium Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Wales	Belgium
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	12	14
Draws	10	8
Losses	8	7
Goals Scored	1.6	2.31
Goals Conceded	1.13	1
Expected Goals (xG)	2.00	3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.57	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2025 World Championship

Wales vs Belgium

Possession: 58% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

2:4

Jun 9, 2025 World Championship

Belgium vs Wales

Possession: 46% - 43% Cards: 1 - 4

4:3

Sep 22, 2022 UEFA Nations League

Belgium vs Wales

Possession: 58% - 57% Cards: 0 - 1

2:1

Jun 11, 2022 UEFA Nations League

Wales vs Belgium

Possession: 43% - 56% Cards: 0 - 2

1:1

Nov 16, 2021 World Championship

Wales vs Belgium

Possession: 45% - 50% Cards: 1 - 0

1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodon J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Broadhead N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.54

Avg xA / game 1

Belgium Compare

Top Goalscorer Meunier T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Trossard L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.85

Avg xA / game 1.74

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales 29 / 100

Belgium 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Wales Belgium

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Belgium or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wales attacking → ← attacking Belgium

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wales scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Belgium let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Wales went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Belgium lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 50

2.00 Goals expected (xG) 3.13

1.57 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0