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World Championship 2026 Cardiff City Stadium

Belgium

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Risks Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

This World Championship 2026 encounter between Wales and Belgium promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Wales averages 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded in recent matches. Belgium shows a form average of 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 0 wins for Wales, 3 wins for Belgium, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 13.10.25 ended in a 2:4 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 1.25 for Wales and 2.44 for Belgium, suggesting the primary value lies in the Belgium double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%

Wales

33%

Draws

37%

Belgium

Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Belgium

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence

Wales picked up more points recently compared to Belgium.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.25 vs 2.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Wales Clean Sheet 10%

Belgium Clean Sheet 11%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Wales	Belgium
Matches Played	30	29
Wins	12	14
Draws	10	8
Losses	8	7
Goals Scored	1.6	2.28
Goals Conceded	1.13	0.97
Expected Goals (xG)	1.75	3.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.75	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

13.10.25 World Championship

Wales vs Belgium

Possession: 53% - 59% Cards: 0 - 2

2:4

09.06.25 World Championship

Belgium vs Wales

Possession: 49% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

4:3

22.09.22 UEFA Nations League

Belgium vs Wales

Possession: 58% - 48% Cards: 4 - 4

2:1

11.06.22 UEFA Nations League

Wales vs Belgium

Possession: 44% - 50% Cards: 0 - 1

1:1

16.11.21 World Championship

Wales vs Belgium

Possession: 57% - 53% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Wales

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Belgium

Pressing Intensity Aggressive press (PPDA < 9.5)

Attacking Style Keep the ball

Wing Attack Frequency A lot of crosses

Defensive Alignment Sit deep

Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodon J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Broadhead N.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.35

Avg xA / game 0.88

Belgium Compare

Top Goalscorer Meunier T.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Trossard L.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 2.85

Avg xA / game 1.74

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales 29 / 100

Belgium 36 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Wales Belgium

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Belgium or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +36.5%

4.55

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Wales 33%

Belgium 30%

15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Wales 29%

Belgium 39%

30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Wales 30%

Belgium 37%

45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Wales 32%

Belgium 35%

60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Wales 27%

Belgium 41%

75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Wales 35%

Belgium 43%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wales attacking → ← attacking Belgium

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wales have found the net in 73% of their last 30 matches.

Belgium have conceded at least one goal in 62% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 4.00 goals per match.

Wales remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Belgium suffered defeat in 0 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate

Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 50

1.75 Goals expected (xG) 3.13

1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Germany	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Slovakia	6	4	2	6:8	12
3	Northern Ireland	6	3	3	7:6	9
4	Luxembourg	6	0	6	1:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	6	4	2	0	14:2	14
2	Kosovo	6	3	2	1	6:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	0	4	2	3:8	4
4	Sweden	6	0	2	4	4:12	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Scotland	6	4	1	1	13:7	13
2	Denmark	6	3	2	1	16:7	11
3	Greece	6	2	1	3	10:12	7
4	Belarus	6	0	2	4	4:17	2

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	France	6	5	1	0	16:4	16
2	Ukraine	6	3	1	2	10:11	10
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	13:11	7
4	Azerbaijan	6	0	1	5	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Spain	6	5	1	0	21:2	16
2	Turkey	6	4	1	1	17:12	13
3	Georgia	6	1	0	5	7:15	3
4	Bulgaria	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugal	6	4	1	1	20:7	13
2	Ireland	6	3	1	2	9:7	10
3	Hungary	6	2	2	2	11:10	8
4	Armenia	6	1	0	5	3:19	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	8	6	2	0	27:4	20
2	Poland	8	5	2	1	14:7	17
3	Finland	8	3	1	4	8:14	10
4	Malta	8	1	2	5	4:19	5
5	Lithuania	8	0	3	5	6:15	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Austria	8	6	1	1	22:4	19
2	Bosnia & Herzegovina	8	5	2	1	17:7	17
3	Romania	8	4	1	3	19:10	13
4	Cyprus	8	2	2	4	11:11	8
5	San Marino	8	0	0	8	2:39	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	8	8	0	0	37:5	24
2	Italy	8	6	0	2	21:12	18
3	Israel	8	4	0	4	19:20	12
4	Estonia	8	1	1	6	8:21	4
5	Moldova	8	0	1	7	5:32	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	8	5	3	0	29:7	18
2	Wales	8	5	1	2	21:11	16
3	North Macedonia	8	3	4	1	13:10	13
4	Kazakhstan	8	2	2	4	9:13	8
5	Liechtenstein	8	0	0	8	0:31	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	England	8	8	0	0	22:0	24
2	Albania	8	4	2	2	7:5	14
3	Serbia	8	4	1	3	9:10	13
4	Latvia	8	1	2	5	5:15	5
5	Andorra	8	0	1	7	3:16	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Croatia	8	7	1	0	26:4	22
2	Czech Republic	8	5	1	2	18:8	16
3	Faroe Islands	8	4	0	4	11:9	12
4	Montenegro	8	3	0	5	8:17	9
5	Gibraltar	8	0	0	8	3:28	0