Sport Picks

Europe

UEFA Nations League 2024/2025 Cardiff City Stadium

Montenegro

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Wales play Montenegro in the UEFA Nations League 2024/2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wales averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Montenegro averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. In past meetings, Wales won 3, Montenegro won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Oct 14, 2024 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.94 for Wales and 1.38 for Montenegro. This points to a Wales double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

48%

Wales

15%

Draws

37%

Montenegro

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wales

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

Wales picked up more points recently compared to Montenegro.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.94 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 54%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 52%

Wales Clean Sheet 17%

Montenegro Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Wales	Montenegro
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	12	12
Draws	10	3
Losses	8	15
Goals Scored	1.6	1.27
Goals Conceded	1.13	1.67
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	2.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 14, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Wales vs Montenegro

Possession: 55% - 40% Cards: 3 - 1

1:0

Sep 9, 2024 UEFA Nations League

Montenegro vs Wales

Possession: 45% - 55% Cards: 3 - 2

1:2

Sep 2, 2011 Euro

Wales vs Montenegro

Possession: 59% - 50% Cards: 3 - 1

2:1

Sep 3, 2010 Euro

Montenegro vs Wales

Possession: 57% - 57% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Aug 12, 2009 Friendly International

Montenegro vs Wales

Possession: 57% - 56% Cards: 2 - 3

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales 47 / 100

Montenegro 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Wales Montenegro

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wales or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +20%

2.50

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.3%

2.08

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wales attacking → ← attacking Montenegro

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wales scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Montenegro let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Wales went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Montenegro lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

46 Points in last 5 39

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 1.25

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.25

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Czech Republic	6	3	2	1	9:8	11
2	Ukraine	6	2	2	2	8:8	8
3	Georgia	6	2	1	3	7:6	7
4	Albania	6	2	1	3	4:6	7

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	England	6	5	1	16:3	15
2	Greece	6	5	1	11:4	15
3	Ireland	6	2	4	3:12	6
4	Finland	6	0	6	2:13	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Norway	6	4	1	1	15:7	13
2	Austria	6	3	2	1	14:5	11
3	Slovenia	6	2	2	2	7:9	8
4	Kazakhstan	6	0	1	5	0:15	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wales	6	3	3	0	9:4	12
2	Turkey	6	3	2	1	9:6	11
3	Iceland	6	2	1	3	10:13	7
4	Montenegro	6	1	0	5	4:9	3