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Wales vs Norway - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

UEFA Nations League Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
Wales Logo

Wales

2 - 1
FT
Norway Logo

Norway

Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Bobb O.
Assist: Odegaard M.
16'
Sub
Ryerson J. In: Pedersen M.
Out: Ryerson J.
37'
James J.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The UEFA Nations League game between Wales and Norway finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wales.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Wales
15%
Draws
42%
Norway
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wales

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Norway come out ahead of Wales on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this UEFA Nations League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Wales Clean Sheet 14%
Norway Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wales Norway
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 19
Draws 9 4
Losses 11 7
Goals Scored 1.4 2.6
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.58
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 UEFA Nations League
Wales vs Norway
2:1
Nov 12, 2011 Friendly International
Wales vs Norway
4:1
Feb 6, 2008 Friendly International
Wales vs Norway
3:0
May 27, 2004 Friendly International
Norway vs Wales
0:0
Sep 5, 2001 World Championship
Norway vs Wales
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wales Compare

Top Goalscorer James D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Williams N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Norway Compare

Top Goalscorer Bobb O.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.44
Avg xA / game 0.88

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wales 31 / 100
Norway 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wales Norway

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Wales found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (30 games).

Defensive concern: Norway conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Difficult form: Norway registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wales VS Norway
0.71 Goals Scored 1.88
1.29 Goals Conceded 1.5
71% Over 1.5 88%
29% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wales

(Home)
04 Oct
Wales
0 : 1
Denmark
01 Oct
Wales
2 : 1
Norway
27 Sept
Denmark
2 : 0
Wales
24 Sept
Portugal
1 : 0
Wales
06 Jun
Romania
2 : 1
Wales
Page 1 of 6

Norway

(Away)
04 Oct
Portugal
2 : 1
Norway
01 Oct
Wales
2 : 1
Norway
27 Sept
Norway
1 : 2
Portugal
24 Sept
Norway
3 : 2
Denmark
11 Jul
Norway
1 : 2
England
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 4 3 1 0 7:2 10
2 Italy 4 2 1 1 8:5 7
3 Belgium 4 2 0 2 6:5 6
4 Turkey 4 0 0 4 2:11 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 4 2 2 0 7:5 8
2 Greece 4 2 2 0 5:3 8
3 Germany 4 1 2 1 3:2 5
4 Serbia 4 0 0 4 3:8 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 4 4 0 0 12:5 12
2 England 4 3 0 1 14:3 9
3 Croatia 4 1 0 3 4:14 3
4 Czech Republic 4 0 0 4 2:10 0
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)

League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 4 4 0 0 9:4 12
2 Denmark 4 2 0 2 7:7 6
3 Wales 4 1 0 3 2:5 3
4 Norway 4 1 0 3 6:8 3
Promotion - UEFA Nations League (League A - Play Offs)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League (Relegation - League A/B)
Relegation - UEFA Nations League 2028/2029 (League B)