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Wanderers vs Progreso - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Sub
Bruschi S. In: Couture L.
Out: Bruschi S.
25'
Sub
Formiliano F. In: Garcia A.
Out: Formiliano F.
40'
Garcia A.

AI Match Summary

Progreso in this Liga AUF Uruguaya matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Progreso.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

10%
Wanderers
20%
Draws
70%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Progreso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Progreso haven't matched Wanderers's recent run of results.
  • Progreso are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Wanderers Clean Sheet 15%
Progreso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wanderers Progreso
Matches Played 31 29
Wins 13 9
Draws 8 1
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 1.29 0.79
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 25, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Progreso
0:1
Jul 11, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Progreso
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
2:1
Sep 21, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
2:0
Mar 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Progreso
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wanderers Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Progreso Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wanderers 15 / 100
Progreso 77 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wanderers Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progreso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Wanderers scored in 81% of their last 31 outings.

Progreso has conceded goals in 83% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Wanderers stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Wanderers VS Progreso
1.38 Goals Scored 1.38
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Wanderers

(Home)
05 Nov
Lito
4 : 0
Wanderers
31 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Wanderers
25 Oct
Wanderers
0 : 1
Progreso
17 Oct
Racing Montevideo
3 : 0
Wanderers
10 Oct
Wanderers
1 : 3
Boston River
Page 1 of 7

Progreso

(Away)
01 Nov
Progreso
0 : 2
Defensor Sp.
25 Oct
Wanderers
0 : 1
Progreso
17 Oct
Progreso
2 : 0
Juventud
10 Oct
Penarol
1 : 1
Progreso
03 Oct
Liverpool M.
3 : 2
Progreso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Liverpool M. 13 9 3 1 22:8 30
2 Montevideo City 13 9 1 3 26:14 28
3 Club Nacional 13 8 2 3 19:13 26
4 Maldonado 13 6 4 3 18:10 22
5 Penarol 13 6 5 2 17:9 22
6 Racing Montevideo 13 5 4 4 18:14 19
7 Progreso 13 6 1 6 13:15 19
8 Juventud 13 4 6 3 12:10 18
9 CA Cerro 13 5 3 5 15:19 18
10 Wanderers 13 4 4 5 14:19 16
11 Boston River 13 4 3 6 15:17 15
12 Albion 13 4 1 8 15:20 13
13 Defensor Sp. 13 3 3 7 16:23 12
14 Danubio 13 2 4 7 7:15 10
15 Cerro Largo 13 1 6 6 10:17 9
16 Central Esp. 13 2 2 9 8:22 8
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs)