Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Wanderers vs Progreso

Uruguay Uruguay

Liga AUF Uruguaya Estádio Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera, Montevideo
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
Zeballos J.
26'
Cosentino L.
30'
Silva G.

AI Match Summary

The Liga AUF Uruguaya game between Wanderers and Progreso finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wanderers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Wanderers
20%
Draws
44%
Progreso
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Progreso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Wanderers carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Wanderers Clean Sheet 21%
Progreso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wanderers Progreso
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 6
Draws 7 4
Losses 10 19
Goals Scored 1.28 0.76
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Progreso
2:0
Apr 18, 2026 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
2:1
Sep 21, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
2:0
Mar 27, 2025 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Wanderers vs Progreso
1:1
Nov 10, 2024 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Progreso vs Wanderers
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wanderers Compare

Top Goalscorer Zeballos J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cosentino L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Progreso Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wanderers 37 / 100
Progreso 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wanderers Progreso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Progreso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wanderers found the back of the net in 83% of recent matches (29 games).

Progreso has conceded goals in 86% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Solid form: Wanderers remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Wanderers VS Progreso
1.13 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Wanderers

(Home)
12 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
Club Nacional
09 Sept
Maldonado
4 : 1
Wanderers
05 Sept
Maldonado
2 : 0
Wanderers
01 Sept
Wanderers
1 : 1
CA Cerro
28 Aug
Wanderers
3 : 0
Central Esp.
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Progreso

(Away)
16 Sept
Progreso
0 : 1
Club Nacional
13 Sept
Progreso
1 : 3
CA Cerro
07 Sept
Albion
0 : 1
Progreso
03 Sept
Albion
2 : 1
Progreso
29 Aug
Progreso
1 : 0
Danubio
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Penarol 7 5 1 1 12:3 16
2 Cerro Largo 7 3 2 2 7:5 11
3 Racing Montevideo 7 2 4 1 4:3 10
4 Liverpool M. 7 2 3 2 5:5 9
5 Central Esp. 7 2 3 2 4:4 9
6 CA Cerro 7 3 0 4 6:10 9
7 Defensor Sp. 7 1 3 3 6:9 6
8 Boston River 7 1 2 4 5:10 5
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Wanderers 7 4 3 0 12:4 15
2 Club Nacional 7 4 1 2 8:8 13
3 Maldonado 7 3 3 1 12:6 12
4 Montevideo City 7 4 0 3 11:11 12
5 Juventud 7 2 2 3 8:11 8
6 Albion 7 1 3 3 6:8 6
7 Progreso 7 2 0 5 6:11 6
8 Danubio 7 0 4 3 5:9 4
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs)