Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Waregem vs Dender

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 Elindus Arena, Waregem
Waregem Logo

Waregem

2 - 1
FT
Dender Logo

Dender

Our Tip

Match Events

6'
Opoku J.
17'
Lemoine L.
25' Event
Goncalves B.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Waregem in this Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waregem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

74%
Waregem
20%
Draws
6%
Dender
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Waregem

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Waregem have won more games recently than Dender.
  • Model gives Waregem a 74% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Waregem have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Waregem Clean Sheet 20%
Dender Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waregem Dender
Matches Played 33 27
Wins 20 5
Draws 3 5
Losses 10 17
Goals Scored 2.39 0.89
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.96
Expected Goals (xG) 2.44 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Waregem vs Dender
2:1
Apr 12, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Waregem
1:2
Feb 7, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Waregem vs Dender
1:0
Nov 7, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Dender vs Waregem
2:2
Oct 29, 2024 Belgian Cup
Waregem vs Dender
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waregem Compare

Top Goalscorer Ake M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.88
Avg xA / game 1.22

Dender Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waregem 85 / 100
Dender 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waregem Dender

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WAR Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dender has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

Waregem went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Waregem scored in 79% of their last 33 games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Waregem VS Dender
2.88 Goals Scored 0.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Waregem

(Home)
09 Aug
Waregem
2 : 1
Genk
01 Aug
Beerschot VA
2 : 3
Waregem
25 Jul
Waregem
3 : 2
Sparta Rotterdam
18 Jul
Waregem
1 : 1
AZ Alkmaar
11 Jul
Waregem
2 : 1
Kryvbas
Page 1 of 7

Dender

(Away)
08 Aug
Dender
0 : 2
Knokke
02 Aug
Oudenaarde
5 : 0
Dender
01 Aug
Sporting Lokeren
3 : 0
Dender
23 May
Dender
0 : 0
Lommel SK
17 May
Lommel SK
3 : 2
Dender
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
13 Waregem 6 5 1 0 15:6 48
14 Cercle Brugge 6 3 1 2 14:11 41
15 RAAL La Louviere 6 1 0 5 5:13 34
16 Dender 6 2 0 4 7:11 25
Relegation - Jupiler Pro League 2025/2026 (Relegation)