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Waregem vs Genk Prediction & H2H Stats

Belgium Belgium

Jupiler Pro League Elindus Arena, Waregem
Our Tip

Match Events

39' Event
Durosinmi R.
Assist: Ito J.
42'
Heymans D.
52'
Ementa A.

AI Match Summary

Waregem in this Jupiler Pro League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Waregem.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Waregem
35%
Draws
39%
Genk
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Genk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Waregem have won more games recently than Genk.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular Jupiler Pro League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
Waregem Clean Sheet 13%
Genk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waregem Genk
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 17 11
Draws 4 9
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 1.97 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.54
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Waregem vs Genk
2:1
Jan 17, 2026 Jupiler Pro League
Waregem vs Genk
2:1
Aug 31, 2025 Jupiler Pro League
Genk vs Waregem
3:2
Jul 15, 2023 Club Friendly
Genk vs Waregem
3:3
Jan 14, 2023 Jupiler Pro League
Genk vs Waregem
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waregem Compare

Top Goalscorer Ake M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ujka S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Genk Compare

Top Goalscorer Durosinmi R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waregem 31 / 100
Genk 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waregem Genk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Genk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Waregem found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Genk has conceded goals in 75% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Waregem stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Waregem VS Genk
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Waregem

(Home)
02 Oct
Lille
2 : 1
Waregem
19 Sept
Anderlecht
3 : 0
Waregem
13 Sept
Waregem
0 : 1
Charleroi
06 Sept
Kortrijk
0 : 2
Waregem
30 Aug
Westerlo
2 : 2
Waregem
Page 1 of 6

Genk

(Away)
20 Sept
Club Brugge
3 : 0
Genk
13 Sept
Genk
1 : 1
Gent
06 Sept
Anderlecht
0 : 0
Genk
28 Aug
Genk
4 : 0
SK Beveren
22 Aug
Antwerp
4 : 4
Genk
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Royale Union SG 7 6 1 0 21:3 19
2 Gent 7 6 1 0 13:4 19
3 Club Brugge 7 6 0 1 15:3 18
4 Charleroi 7 6 0 1 15:7 18
5 Anderlecht 7 4 1 2 7:5 13
6 Waregem 7 3 2 2 10:7 11
7 St. Liege 7 3 2 2 13:12 11
8 Westerlo 7 3 1 3 15:16 10
9 SK Beveren 7 3 0 4 7:11 9
10 Genk 7 2 3 2 13:12 9
11 St. Truiden 7 2 2 3 12:12 8
12 Lommel SK 7 2 2 3 6:8 8
13 Antwerp 7 2 1 4 11:15 7
14 RAAL La Louviere 7 1 1 5 7:14 4
15 Leuven 7 1 1 5 5:13 4
16 Kortrijk 7 1 0 6 2:15 3
17 Cercle Brugge 7 0 3 4 8:14 3
18 KV Mechelen 7 0 3 4 5:14 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Challenger Pro League 2027/2028 (Main)