Sport Picks
Warta Poznan vs Arka Gdynia - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Poland
Division 1 Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej, Poznań 
Match Events
40'
40'
Mlynarczyk A.
Assist: Niedzielski J.
46'
46'
Sub
Milewski M. In: Dziegielewski N.
Out: Milewski M.
46'
46'
Sub
Pawlowski B. In: Walus F.
Out: Pawlowski B.
AI Match Summary
Warta Poznan in this Division 1 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Warta Poznan.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
59%
15%
26%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Warta Poznan
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
59%
/ Medium Confidence
- Warta Poznan have won more games recently than Arka Gdynia.
- Win probability leans Warta Poznan's way, sitting at 90%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Warta Poznan Clean Sheet 19%
Arka Gdynia Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Warta Poznan | Arka Gdynia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 29 |
| Wins | 11 | 9 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.64 | 1.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.5 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 12, 2026 Division 1
Warta Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
3:0
Apr 8, 2025 Division 1
Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznan
3:0
Jan 25, 2025 Club Friendly
Arka Gdynia vs Warta Poznan
1:0
Sep 21, 2024 Division 1
Warta Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
0:1
Jan 15, 2022 Club Friendly
Warta Poznan vs Arka Gdynia
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Warta Poznan Compare
Top Goalscorer Mlynarczyk A.
1 Goals Assists Leader Szymanek K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Arka Gdynia Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Warta Poznan 85 / 100
Arka Gdynia 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Warta Poznan Arka Gdynia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Warta Poznan Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 6:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Warta Poznan scored in 86% of their last 28 games.
Arka Gdynia let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.
These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.
Warta Poznan went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Warta Poznan VS Arka Gdynia
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Warta Poznan
(Home) 11 Oct
Stal Mielec
2 : 1 Warta Poznan
03 Oct
Chrobry Glogow
1 : 3 Warta Poznan
18 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 2 Puszcza
12 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 0 Arka Gdynia
04 Sept
Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki
1 : 0 Warta Poznan
Page 1 of 6
18 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 2 Puszcza
12 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 0 Arka Gdynia
05 Aug
Warta Poznan
0 : 1 R. Rzeszow
18 Jul
Warta Poznan
3 : 4 Polkowice
18 Jul
Warta Poznan
1 : 2 Zielona Gora
Page 1 of 2
Arka Gdynia
(Away) 10 Oct
Arka Gdynia
1 : 2 Polonia Warszawa
03 Oct
Arka Gdynia
3 : 2 IFK Goteborg
20 Sept
Pogon Siedlce
2 : 1 Arka Gdynia
12 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 0 Arka Gdynia
06 Sept
Arka Gdynia
1 : 1 LKS Lodz
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Pogon Siedlce
2 : 1 Arka Gdynia
12 Sept
Warta Poznan
3 : 0 Arka Gdynia
02 Sept
R. Rzeszow
0 : 4 Arka Gdynia
23 Aug
Legnica
2 : 0 Arka Gdynia
10 Aug
Unia Skierniewice
2 : 0 Arka Gdynia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pogon Grodzisk Mazowiecki | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 19:8 | 21 |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17:13 | 17 |
| 3 | Termalica Bruk-Bet | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16:14 | 17 |
| 4 | Warta Poznan | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 18:15 | 15 |
| 5 | LKS Lodz | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 13:11 | 15 |
| 6 | Ruch Chorzow | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:11 | 15 |
| 7 | Legnica | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:10 | 14 |
| 8 | S. Rzeszow | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10:15 | 14 |
| 9 | Lechia Gdansk | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 17:15 | 13 |
| 10 | Pogon Siedlce | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 9:8 | 12 |
| 11 | Chrobry Glogow | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11:12 | 12 |
| 12 | Odra Opole | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8:9 | 12 |
| 13 | Polonia Bytom | 10 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 15:17 | 12 |
| 14 | Stal Mielec | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 16:24 | 12 |
| 15 | Podbeskidzie | 10 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 13:14 | 11 |
| 16 | Arka Gdynia | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:13 | 11 |
| 17 | Unia Skierniewice | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 12:17 | 11 |
| 18 | Puszcza | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 8:13 | 6 |
Promotion - Ekstraklasa 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
