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Waterhouse vs Chapelton

Jamaica Jamaica

Premier League 2025/2026 Waterhouse Mini Stadium, Kingston
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Murray C.
61' Event
Bicknell A.
72' Event
Campbell K.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League 2025/2026 game between Waterhouse and Chapelton finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Waterhouse.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
Waterhouse
15%
Draws
32%
Chapelton
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Waterhouse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Chapelton haven't matched Waterhouse's recent run of results.
  • 53% — that's where the model lands on Waterhouse taking it.
  • Regular Premier League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.8%
Waterhouse Clean Sheet 17%
Chapelton Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waterhouse Chapelton
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 16 12
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 13
Goals Scored 1.57 1.21
Goals Conceded 0.75 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Waterhouse vs Chapelton
3:0
Jan 22, 2026 Premier League
Chapelton vs Waterhouse
0:1
Sep 30, 2025 Premier League
Waterhouse vs Chapelton
3:0
Mar 31, 2025 Premier League
Chapelton vs Waterhouse
1:1
Jan 26, 2025 Premier League
Waterhouse vs Chapelton
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Waterhouse Compare

Top Goalscorer Murray C.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Bicknell A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Chapelton Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waterhouse 84 / 100
Chapelton 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waterhouse Chapelton

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waterhouse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Waterhouse's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Chapelton let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Waterhouse has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Waterhouse VS Chapelton
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 3.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Waterhouse

(Home)
21 Sept
Humble Lions
0 : 5
Waterhouse
13 May
Waterhouse
0 : 2
Cavalier
11 May
Cavalier
2 : 2
Waterhouse
06 May
Waterhouse
4 : 0
FC Dunbeholden
03 May
Waterhouse
3 : 0
Chapelton
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Chapelton

(Away)
20 Sept
Chapelton
2 : 1
Molynes United
13 Sept
Montego Bay
2 : 0
Chapelton
06 May
Chapelton
2 : 7
Arnett Gardens
03 May
Waterhouse
3 : 0
Chapelton
26 Apr
Chapelton
6 : 2
Spanish Town Police
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mount Pleasant 39 20 14 5 69:25 74
2 Montego Bay 39 21 8 10 79:45 71
3 Portmore 39 17 15 7 54:35 66
4 Waterhouse 39 19 8 12 51:32 65
5 Cavalier 39 19 4 16 57:41 61
6 Racing United 39 14 18 7 53:34 60
7 Arnett Gardens 39 17 7 15 68:46 58
8 Chapelton 39 14 7 18 42:57 49
9 FC Dunbeholden 39 13 9 17 40:53 48
10 Tivoli 39 11 11 17 37:58 44
11 Treasure Beach 39 10 13 16 43:59 43
12 Molynes United 39 9 15 15 45:47 42
13 Harbour View 39 9 12 18 53:73 39
14 Spanish Town Police 39 7 5 27 25:111 26
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)