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Waterside Karori W vs Wellington Phoenix 2 W - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Women
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Waterside Karori W host Wellington Phoenix 2 W in the National League Women. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Waterside Karori W have averaged 1.75 scored and 1.67 conceded recently, against Wellington Phoenix 2 W's 1.68 scored and 2.52 conceded. Past meetings favor Wellington Phoenix 2 W slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 5, 2026, ending 4:0. The numbers (1.39 xG vs 1.60) point toward Waterside Karori W. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Waterside Karori W
15%
Draws
59%
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Phoenix 2 W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Wellington Phoenix 2 W have managed 1.68 goals a game lately — Waterside Karori W are scoring more at 1.75.
  • Model gives Wellington Phoenix 2 W a 59% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 47.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Waterside Karori W Clean Sheet 14%
Wellington Phoenix 2 W Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Waterside Karori W Wellington Phoenix 2 W
Matches Played 24 31
Wins 10 10
Draws 4 3
Losses 10 18
Goals Scored 1.75 1.68
Goals Conceded 1.67 2.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.39 1.60
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Wellington Phoenix 2 W vs Waterside Karori W
4:0
Jul 5, 2025 Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Waterside Karori W vs Wellington Phoenix 2 W
1:4
Oct 4, 2024 National League Women
Wellington Phoenix 2 W vs Waterside Karori W
0:5
Jul 6, 2024 Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Waterside Karori W vs Wellington Phoenix 2 W
2:3
Nov 11, 2023 National League Women
Waterside Karori W vs Wellington Phoenix 2 W
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Waterside Karori W 11 / 100
Wellington Phoenix 2 W 74 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Waterside Karori W Wellington Phoenix 2 W

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Wellington Phoenix 2 W Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Phoenix 2 W has conceded goals in 84% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

Waterside Karori W found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (24 games).

Recent resilience: Waterside Karori W stayed unbeaten in 1 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Waterside Karori W VS Wellington Phoenix 2 W
0.4 Goals Scored 2
1.2 Goals Conceded 2.38
40% Over 1.5 100%
40% Over 2.5 88%
20% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Waterside Karori W

(Home)
03 Oct
West Coast Rangers W
1 : 2
Waterside Karori W
26 Sept
Waterside Karori W
0 : 1
Fencibles W
05 Jul
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
4 : 0
Waterside Karori W
05 Jul
Waterside Karori W
1 : 4
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
01 Dec
Auckland United W
3 : 1
Waterside Karori W
Page 1 of 5

Wellington Phoenix 2 W

(Away)
04 Oct
Eastern Suburbs W
3 : 0
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
27 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
3 : 1
Canterbury United W
15 Aug
Cashmere Technical W
2 : 1
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
05 Jul
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
4 : 0
Waterside Karori W
22 Nov
West Coast Rangers W
2 : 2
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Eastern Suburbs W 2 2 0 0 7:0 6
2 Auckland United W 2 2 0 0 6:0 6
3 Fencibles W 2 2 0 0 4:0 6
4 Waterside Karori W 2 1 0 1 2:2 3
5 Wellington Phoenix 2 W 2 1 0 1 3:4 3
6 Wellington United W 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
7 Canterbury United W 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
8 West Coast Rangers W 2 0 0 2 1:6 0
9 Southern United W 2 0 0 2 0:8 0
Promotion - National League Women (Play Offs)