Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Welayta Dicha vs Bahir Dar Kenema

Ethiopia Ethiopia

Premier League
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Welayta Dicha play Bahir Dar Kenema in the Premier League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Welayta Dicha averaged 1 goals scored and 0.67 conceded. Bahir Dar Kenema averaged 0.67 goals scored and 0.73 conceded. In past meetings, Welayta Dicha won 1, Bahir Dar Kenema won 1, and they drew 3. Their last match on Jun 16, 2026 ended 0:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.69 for Welayta Dicha and 0.50 for Bahir Dar Kenema. This points to a Welayta Dicha double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
Welayta Dicha
35%
Draws
28%
Bahir Dar Kenema
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Welayta Dicha

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / Medium Confidence
  • Welayta Dicha picked up more points recently compared to Bahir Dar Kenema.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.69 vs 0.50 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 51%
Over 2.5 Goals 20%
Over 3.5 Goals 12%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Welayta Dicha Clean Sheet 31%
Bahir Dar Kenema Clean Sheet 20%
First Half Goal 46%
Second Half Goal 48%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Welayta Dicha Bahir Dar Kenema
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 10 6
Draws 15 18
Losses 5 6
Goals Scored 1 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.67 0.73
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 16, 2026 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Welayta Dicha
0:2
Jan 20, 2026 Premier League
Welayta Dicha vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:0
Jun 12, 2025 Premier League
Welayta Dicha vs Bahir Dar Kenema
0:4
Nov 3, 2024 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Welayta Dicha
0:0
May 24, 2024 Premier League
Bahir Dar Kenema vs Welayta Dicha
0:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Welayta Dicha 40 / 100
Bahir Dar Kenema 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Welayta Dicha Bahir Dar Kenema

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Welayta Dicha or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +27.6%
3.45
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +42.8%
7.14
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Welayta Dicha attacking → ← attacking Bahir Dar Kenema

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Welayta Dicha scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Bahir Dar Kenema let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Welayta Dicha went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Bahir Dar Kenema lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Busy schedule: Managers might rest key players, which can affect team cohesion.

Risk Factor

Regular league game. Both sides need the points to climb the table.

Risk Factor

Pressure: A tense match where mistakes or cards can change things quickly.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 36
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 0.75
0.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Sidama Bunna371911743:2268
2Negele Arsi Ketema FC381515837:3060
3Mechal SC381415944:3157
4Fasil Kenema3814131128:2855
5St. Georges3814121233:3154
6Welayta Dicha381118937:3151
7Ethio Electric S.C.3712151031:2651
8Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee)3813121340:3951
9Hawassa3812141237:3250
10Sheger Ketema FC3811171034:3150
11Bahir Dar Kenema38921828:2848
12Hadiya Hossana3811151231:3548
13Ethiopia Nigd Bank3811141345:4547
14Ethiopian Insurance3810161230:3146
15Adama City3810161235:3946
16Welwalo Adigrat3810161232:3646
17Shire Endaselassie389151424:3242
18Dire Dawa389151427:4142
19Mekelle 70 Enderta FC388161426:3840
20Arba Menche387141730:4635