Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Wellington Olympic vs Auckland City

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Newtown Park
Sat, Dec 13, 2025
2 - 3
05:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Wellington Olympic play Auckland City in the National League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wellington Olympic averaged 2.61 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. Auckland City averaged 1.81 goals scored and 1.61 conceded. In past meetings, Wellington Olympic won 1, Auckland City won 3, and they drew 1. Their last match on Dec 13, 2025 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.81 for Wellington Olympic and 1.44 for Auckland City. This points to a Wellington Olympic double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
Wellington Olympic
15%
Draws
42%
Auckland City
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Olympic

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Wellington Olympic picked up more points recently compared to Auckland City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.81 vs 1.44 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 73%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 84%
Over 2.5 Goals 73%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 22%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Wellington Olympic Clean Sheet 16%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 76%
Second Half Goal 80%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Olympic Auckland City
Matches Played 33 36
Wins 21 21
Draws 3 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 2.61 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.45 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 13, 2025 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland City
2:3
Oct 18, 2025 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland City
0:1
Oct 5, 2024 National League
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland City
0:1
Sep 7, 2024 Chatham Cup
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland City
2:1
Mar 16, 2024 OFC Champions League
Wellington Olympic vs Auckland City
3:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Olympic Compare

Top Goalscorer Stoupe L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Prins I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Auckland City Compare

Top Goalscorer Ellis M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gray C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Olympic 42 / 100
Auckland City 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Olympic Auckland City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wellington Olympic or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23%
2.86
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +8.8%
1.49
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wellington Olympic attacking → ← attacking Auckland City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Olympic scored in 88% of their last 33 games.

Auckland City let in goals in 67% of their last 36 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Wellington Olympic went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Auckland City lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

66 Points in last 5 69
2.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.63
1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63