Sport Picks
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Birkenhead Prediction & H2H Stats
New Zealand
National League 2025 Fraser Park, Lower Hutt 
Match Events
20'
20'
Flowerdew L.
36'
36'
Wellsbury M.
52'
52'
Van Den Hoven L.
AI Match Summary
Birkenhead in this National League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 2-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Birkenhead.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
34%
15%
51%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Birkenhead
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Birkenhead have won more games recently than Wellington Phoenix 2.
- Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
- Regular National League 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 82%).
- These two have met 3 times recently and Birkenhead have taken 2 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 82%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 11%
Birkenhead Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Wellington Phoenix 2 | Birkenhead |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 31 |
| Wins | 11 | 16 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 17 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.94 | 2.23 |
| Goals Conceded | 2.55 | 2.03 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 2.06 | 1.81 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Nov 29, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Birkenhead
2:3
Oct 27, 2024 National League
Birkenhead vs Wellington Phoenix 2
4:2
Nov 27, 2022 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Birkenhead
4:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare
Top Goalscorer Flowerdew L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Candy L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.58
Avg xA / game 1.03
Birkenhead Compare
Top Goalscorer Wellsbury M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Van Den Hoven L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Wellington Phoenix 2 35 / 100
Birkenhead 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Wellington Phoenix 2 Birkenhead
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Birkenhead Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Birkenhead has conceded goals in 87% of their last 31 outings.
Historical meetings average 5.67 goals per match.
Attacking prowess: Wellington Phoenix 2 scored in 71% of their last 31 outings.
Birkenhead lost 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Birkenhead
1.75 Goals Scored 1.88
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.38
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
38% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
Wellington Phoenix 2
(Home) 04 Oct
Cashmere Technical
10 : 0 Wellington Phoenix 2
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1 Auckland United
07 Dec
Western Suburbs
2 : 7 Wellington Phoenix 2
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3 Birkenhead
22 Nov
Auckland City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix 2
Page 1 of 7
26 Sept
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 1 Auckland United
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3 Birkenhead
15 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 0 Coastal Spirit
25 Oct
Wellington Phoenix 2
1 : 4 Miramar
11 Oct
Wellington Phoenix 2
3 : 0 Christchurch
Page 1 of 3
Birkenhead
(Away) 27 Sept
Birkenhead
0 : 4 Cashmere Technical
07 Dec
Birkenhead
3 : 1 Western Springs
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3 Birkenhead
23 Nov
Birkenhead
1 : 4 Miramar
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2 Birkenhead
Page 1 of 7
29 Nov
Wellington Phoenix 2
2 : 3 Birkenhead
15 Nov
Auckland United
3 : 2 Birkenhead
02 Nov
Auckland FC 2
3 : 0 Birkenhead
19 Oct
Western Suburbs
3 : 1 Birkenhead
28 Sept
Coastal Spirit
1 : 2 Birkenhead
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Olympic | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 23:14 | 21 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:14 | 20 |
| 3 | Miramar | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 25:14 | 19 |
| 4 | Auckland FC 2 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 17:10 | 18 |
| 5 | Western Springs | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16:13 | 16 |
| 6 | Birkenhead | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 20:21 | 15 |
| 7 | Christchurch | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16:19 | 14 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix 2 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18:21 | 10 |
| 9 | Western Suburbs | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 19:21 | 10 |
| 10 | Auckland United | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11:19 | 8 |
| 11 | Coastal Spirit | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5:23 | 7 |
Promotion - National League 2025 (Grand Final)
