Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Coastal Spirit

New Zealand New Zealand

National League Fraser Park
Our Tip

Match Events

83' Event
Flowerdew L.

AI Match Summary

The National League game between Wellington Phoenix 2 and Coastal Spirit finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Wellington Phoenix 2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Wellington Phoenix 2
11%
Draws
9%
Coastal Spirit
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Wellington Phoenix 2

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Coastal Spirit haven't matched Wellington Phoenix 2's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans Wellington Phoenix 2's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular National League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
Wellington Phoenix 2 Clean Sheet 20%
Coastal Spirit Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 Coastal Spirit
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 12 8
Draws 2 5
Losses 16 14
Goals Scored 1 0.5
Goals Conceded 1.75 2.5
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 2.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 15, 2025 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Coastal Spirit
1:0
Oct 18, 2024 National League
Wellington Phoenix 2 vs Coastal Spirit
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wellington Phoenix 2 Compare

Top Goalscorer Flowerdew L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Coastal Spirit Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 76 / 100
Coastal Spirit 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 Coastal Spirit

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick WEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Phoenix 2's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Coastal Spirit's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Coastal Spirit's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Wellington Phoenix 2 VS Coastal Spirit
1 Goals Scored 0.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Wellington Olympic1070323:1421
2Auckland City1062219:1420
3Miramar1061325:1419
4Auckland FC 21053217:1018
5Western Springs1051416:1316
6Birkenhead1050520:2115
7Christchurch1042416:1914
8Wellington Phoenix 21031618:2110
9Western Suburbs1031619:2110
10Auckland United1022611:198
11Coastal Spirit102175:237