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Wellington Phoenix 2 W vs Waterside Karori W

New Zealand New Zealand

Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Wellington Phoenix 2 W play Waterside Karori W in the Kate Sheppard Cup Women. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wellington Phoenix 2 W averaged 1.65 goals scored and 2.68 conceded. Waterside Karori W averaged 1.9 goals scored and 1.62 conceded. In past meetings, Wellington Phoenix 2 W won 2, Waterside Karori W won 2, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jul 5, 2025 ended 1:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.67 for Wellington Phoenix 2 W and 1.63 for Waterside Karori W. This points to a Waterside Karori W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Wellington Phoenix 2 W
15%
Draws
50%
Waterside Karori W
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Waterside Karori W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Wellington Phoenix 2 W picked up more points recently compared to Waterside Karori W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.67 vs 1.63 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 84%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 96%
Over 2.5 Goals 84%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68%
Wellington Phoenix 2 W Clean Sheet 14%
Waterside Karori W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 86%
Second Half Goal 91%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wellington Phoenix 2 W Waterside Karori W
Matches Played 31 21
Wins 9 9
Draws 4 4
Losses 18 8
Goals Scored 1.65 1.9
Goals Conceded 2.68 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.25 1.83

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2025 Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Waterside Karori W vs Wellington Phoenix 2 W
1:4
Oct 4, 2024 National League Women
Wellington Phoenix 2 W vs Waterside Karori W
0:5
Jul 6, 2024 Kate Sheppard Cup Women
Waterside Karori W vs Wellington Phoenix 2 W
2:3
Nov 11, 2023 National League Women
Waterside Karori W vs Wellington Phoenix 2 W
4:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wellington Phoenix 2 W 34 / 100
Waterside Karori W 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wellington Phoenix 2 W Waterside Karori W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Waterside Karori W or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +7.5%
1.28
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wellington Phoenix 2 W attacking → ← attacking Waterside Karori W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wellington Phoenix 2 W scored in 84% of their last 31 games.

Waterside Karori W let in goals in 81% of their last 21 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Wellington Phoenix 2 W went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Waterside Karori W lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 31
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.00
2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.83