Sport Picks
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 Sky Stadium, Wellington 
Match Events
17'
17'
Sub
Payne T. In: Loke T.
Out: Payne T.
42'
42'
Vidic J.
Assist: McGarry J.
45'
45'
McGarry J.
AI Match Summary
Wellington Phoenix in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Wellington Phoenix.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Phoenix
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Brisbane Roar haven't matched Wellington Phoenix's recent run of results.
- Win probability leans Wellington Phoenix's way, sitting at 42%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
- History favors Wellington Phoenix here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 14%
Brisbane Roar Clean Sheet 12%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Wellington Phoenix | Brisbane Roar |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 32 |
| Wins | 12 | 10 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 12 | 15 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.59 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.77 | 1.59 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.19 | 1.63 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Mar 21, 2026 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
1:2
Jan 3, 2026 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
0:3
Oct 26, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar
2:1
May 14, 2025 Australia Cup
Wellington Phoenix vs Brisbane Roar
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 A-League
Brisbane Roar vs Wellington Phoenix
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Wellington Phoenix Compare
Top Goalscorer Nagasawa K.
1 Goals Assists Leader Armiento C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59
Brisbane Roar Compare
Top Goalscorer Vidic J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Wellington Phoenix 41 / 100
Brisbane Roar 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Wellington Phoenix Brisbane Roar
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Wellington Phoenix scored in 80% of their last 30 outings.
Brisbane Roar let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.
Wellington Phoenix went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Wellington Phoenix VS Brisbane Roar
1 Goals Scored 2
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Wellington Phoenix
(Home) 24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
14 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 0 Perth Glory
01 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 1 Sydney FC
21 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 5 Auckland FC
06 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 3 Melbourne Victory
Page 1 of 3
Brisbane Roar
(Away) 04 Sept
Olympic FC
3 : 4 Brisbane Roar
29 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
27 Aug
Dewa United
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
09 Aug
Brisbane Roar
2 : 4 Sydney FC
30 Jul
Sydney Olympic
0 : 3 Brisbane Roar
Page 1 of 7
04 Sept
Olympic FC
3 : 4 Brisbane Roar
29 Aug
Persija Jakarta
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
27 Aug
Dewa United
4 : 0 Brisbane Roar
30 Jul
Sydney Olympic
0 : 3 Brisbane Roar
22 Jul
Ipswich
0 : 5 Brisbane Roar
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
