Sport Picks
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City
Australia
A-League 2025/2026 Sky Stadium, Wellington 
Match Events
23'
23'
Eze I.
Assist: Armiento C.
52'
52'
Eze I.
Assist: Nagasawa K.
54'
54'
Sub
Schreiber Z. In: Kanamori T.
Out: Schreiber Z.
AI Match Summary
Neither side could be separated in this A-League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Wellington Phoenix
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Melbourne City have won more games recently than Wellington Phoenix.
- Model gives Wellington Phoenix a 42% chance of winning this.
- Regular A-League 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Melbourne City have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Wellington Phoenix Clean Sheet 16%
Melbourne City Clean Sheet 16%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Wellington Phoenix | Melbourne City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 33 |
| Wins | 12 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 9 |
| Losses | 12 | 11 |
| Goals Scored | 1.33 | 1.24 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.77 | 1.15 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 12, 2026 A-League
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix
2:0
Jan 30, 2026 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City
2:2
Feb 28, 2025 A-League
Wellington Phoenix vs Melbourne City
0:1
Jan 3, 2025 A-League
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix
2:0
Mar 9, 2024 A-League
Melbourne City vs Wellington Phoenix
1:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Wellington Phoenix Compare
Top Goalscorer Eze I.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Melbourne City Compare
Top Goalscorer Younis M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Memeti M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.33
Avg xA / game 0.81
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Wellington Phoenix 41 / 100
Melbourne City 37 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Wellington Phoenix Melbourne City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Wellington Phoenix found the back of the net in 80% of recent matches (30 games).
Melbourne City let in goals in 64% of their last 33 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.
Recent resilience: Wellington Phoenix stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Wellington Phoenix VS Melbourne City
1.14 Goals Scored 1.63
1.29 Goals Conceded 0.75
86% Over 1.5 75%
43% Over 2.5 38%
14% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Wellington Phoenix
(Home) 24 Apr
Macarthur FC
4 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
12 Apr
Melbourne City
2 : 0 Wellington Phoenix
05 Apr
Melbourne Victory
0 : 1 Wellington Phoenix
21 Mar
Brisbane Roar
1 : 2 Wellington Phoenix
Page 1 of 6
18 Apr
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 1 Western Sydney Wanderers
14 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 0 Perth Glory
01 Mar
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 1 Sydney FC
21 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
0 : 5 Auckland FC
06 Feb
Wellington Phoenix
2 : 3 Melbourne Victory
Page 1 of 3
Melbourne City
(Away) 25 Sept
Oakleigh Cannons
0 : 2 Melbourne City
11 Aug
Queensland Lions
2 : 0 Melbourne City
07 Aug
Melbourne City
0 : 2 Palermo
26 Jul
Weston Workers Bears
0 : 3 Melbourne City
02 May
Auckland FC
2 : 1 Melbourne City
Page 1 of 7
25 Sept
Oakleigh Cannons
0 : 2 Melbourne City
11 Aug
Queensland Lions
2 : 0 Melbourne City
26 Jul
Weston Workers Bears
0 : 3 Melbourne City
02 May
Auckland FC
2 : 1 Melbourne City
18 Apr
Brisbane Roar
2 : 3 Melbourne City
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Jets | 26 | 15 | 3 | 8 | 55:39 | 48 |
| 2 | Adelaide Utd | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46:36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland FC | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42:29 | 42 |
| 4 | Melbourne Victory | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 44:33 | 40 |
| 5 | Sydney FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 33:25 | 39 |
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33:33 | 38 |
| 7 | Macarthur FC | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:44 | 34 |
| 8 | Wellington Phoenix | 26 | 9 | 6 | 11 | 36:48 | 33 |
| 9 | Central Coast | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35:42 | 32 |
| 10 | Perth Glory | 26 | 8 | 7 | 11 | 32:39 | 31 |
| 11 | Brisbane Roar | 26 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 27:36 | 26 |
| 12 | Western Sydney Wanderers | 26 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 27:43 | 21 |
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - A-League 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
