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Werder Bremen vs Paderborn - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Germany Germany

Bundesliga Weserstadion, Bremen
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:30 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Werder Bremen host Paderborn in the Bundesliga. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Werder Bremen have averaged 1.59 scored and 1.52 conceded recently, against Paderborn's 1.79 scored and 1.45 conceded. Head-to-head, Werder Bremen have won 2 to Paderborn's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Aug 8, 2026, ending 2:2. xG projections (1.81 - 1.31) back Paderborn to edge this. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Werder Bremen
20%
Draws
33%
Paderborn
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Werder Bremen

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Paderborn come out ahead of Werder Bremen on wins alone.
  • Model gives Werder Bremen a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Bundesliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Werder Bremen Clean Sheet 18%
Paderborn Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Werder Bremen Paderborn
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 13 6
Goals Scored 1.59 1.79
Goals Conceded 1.52 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn
2:2
Oct 30, 2024 DFB Pokal
Paderborn vs Werder Bremen
0:1
Oct 19, 2022 DFB Pokal
Paderborn vs Werder Bremen
3:2
Jan 22, 2022 2. Bundesliga
Paderborn vs Werder Bremen
3:4
Aug 15, 2021 2. Bundesliga
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn
1:4

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Werder Bremen 40 / 100
Paderborn 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Werder Bremen Paderborn

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Werder Bremen Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 4.40 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Werder Bremen scored in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Paderborn has conceded goals in 79% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Werder Bremen remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Werder Bremen VS Paderborn
2.38 Goals Scored 1.75
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Werder Bremen

(Home)
19 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 2
Augsburg
12 Sept
1. FC Koln
1 : 1
Werder Bremen
05 Sept
Werder Bremen
3 : 1
RB Leipzig
30 Aug
Freiburg
4 : 1
Werder Bremen
22 Aug
Luneburger Hansa
0 : 3
Werder Bremen
Page 1 of 6

Paderborn

(Away)
20 Sept
Paderborn
3 : 1
Hoffenheim
12 Sept
Dortmund
3 : 0
Paderborn
05 Sept
Paderborn
0 : 1
Freiburg
29 Aug
Mainz
0 : 0
Paderborn
23 Aug
Phonix Lubeck
2 : 4
Paderborn
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dortmund 4 4 0 0 9:2 12
2 Bayern Munich 4 3 1 0 14:2 10
3 Freiburg 4 3 1 0 12:3 10
4 Augsburg 4 2 1 1 11:6 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 10:5 7
6 Mainz 4 2 1 1 10:6 7
7 Elversberg 4 2 1 1 8:7 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 8:8 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 9:5 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 9:10 5
11 Schalke 4 1 2 1 3:4 5
12 Paderborn 4 1 1 2 3:5 4
13 1. FC Koln 4 1 1 2 6:9 4
14 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 7:10 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 6:9 3
16 Hamburger 4 1 0 3 2:13 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 4:17 1
18 B. Monchengladbach 4 0 0 4 6:16 0
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Bundesliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. Bundesliga 2027/2028 (Main)