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Weston-super-Mare vs Aldershot

England England

FA Cup
Sat, Nov 1, 2025
2 - 1
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Weston-super-Mare play Aldershot in the FA Cup. Weston-super-Mare are favorites here. Recently, Weston-super-Mare averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.13 conceded. Aldershot averaged 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded. In past meetings, Weston-super-Mare won 1, Aldershot won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Nov 1, 2025 ended 2:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.20 for Weston-super-Mare and 1.00 for Aldershot. This points to a Weston-super-Mare double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
Weston-super-Mare
25%
Draws
15%
Aldershot
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Weston-super-Mare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

91% / Very High Confidence
  • Weston-super-Mare picked up more points recently compared to Aldershot.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.20 vs 1.00 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 79%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Over 3.5 Goals 33%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%
Weston-super-Mare Clean Sheet 23%
Aldershot Clean Sheet 12%
First Half Goal 71%
Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Weston-super-Mare Aldershot
Matches Played 31 28
Wins 14 11
Draws 6 3
Losses 11 14
Goals Scored 1.19 1.43
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.68
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 1, 2025 FA Cup
Weston-super-Mare vs Aldershot
2:1
Dec 3, 2013 FA Trophy
Weston-super-Mare vs Aldershot
2:5
Nov 30, 2013 FA Trophy
Aldershot vs Weston-super-Mare
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Weston-super-Mare Compare

Top Goalscorer Lewis E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Waite J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Aldershot Compare

Top Goalscorer Rai K.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.57
Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Weston-super-Mare 59 / 100
Aldershot 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Weston-super-Mare Aldershot

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Weston-super-Mare Win (1)
Secondary Pick Weston-super-Mare & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +15.2%
1.92
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.2%
2.04
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Weston-super-Mare attacking → ← attacking Aldershot

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Weston-super-Mare scored in 58% of their last 31 games.

Aldershot let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.00 goals.

Weston-super-Mare went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Aldershot lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

48 Points in last 5 36
1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.63
0.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50