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Wexford vs Kerry

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Ferrycarrig Park
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

This Division 1 encounter between Wexford and Kerry promises to be a closely contested affair, with win probabilities pointing to an even matchup. Wexford averages 1.3 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in recent matches. Kerry shows a form average of 1.1 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Given their contrasting recent form profiles, this matchup is expected to produce a balanced tactical flow. Historical head-to-head records show 2 wins for Wexford, 1 wins for Kerry, and 2 draws in their recent direct meetings. Their last direct encounter on 15.05.26 ended in a 2:1 scoreline. Our model projects an expected goals (xG) output of 0.88 for Wexford and 1.31 for Kerry, suggesting the primary value lies in the Wexford double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Wexford
30%
Draws
28%
Kerry
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Wexford

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence
  • Wexford picked up more points recently compared to Kerry.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.88 vs 1.31 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 77%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Over 3.5 Goals 29%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 58%
Wexford Clean Sheet 18%
Kerry Clean Sheet 17%
First Half Goal 69%
Second Half Goal 73%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wexford Kerry
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.25 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.75 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

15.05.26 Division 1
Kerry vs Wexford
2:1
13.03.26 Division 1
Wexford vs Kerry
1:1
10.10.25 Division 1
Kerry vs Wexford
0:2
27.06.25 Division 1
Wexford vs Kerry
4:3
16.05.25 Division 1
Kerry vs Wexford
1:1

Tactical Matchup Profile

Field Positions & Control Styles

Wexford

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Kerry

Pressing Intensity Medium Block
Attacking Style Quick counter-attacks
Wing Attack Frequency Play through the middle
Defensive Alignment Push high up (Offside trap)
Detailed strengths & weaknesses require tactical scouting logs (Data Unavailable).

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wexford Compare

Top Goalscorer Rowe M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Kerry Compare

Top Goalscorer Cooney K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader N/A
0 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

Availability Alerts

No availability alerts or suspensions reported for this fixture.

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wexford 41 / 100
Kerry 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wexford Kerry

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wexford or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +23.5%
2.94
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +14.2%
2.38
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Expected Match Flow Timeline

Dominance and pressure projections by 15-minute intervals

0' - 15' Dominance Index

Both sides are expected to start cautiously, looking to control the midfield battle.

Wexford 46%
Kerry 22%
15' - 30' Dominance Index

The game is expected to settle into a tactical block, with both managers looking for space on the flanks.

Wexford 40%
Kerry 29%
30' - 45' Dominance Index

The tempo could accelerate as both teams push for an opening goal before half-time.

Wexford 42%
Kerry 28%
45' - 60' Dominance Index

Expect tactical adjustments from both sides, possibly shifting to a wider play style.

Wexford 44%
Kerry 27%
60' - 75' Dominance Index

As players tire, spaces will open up, leading to transitional counter-attacks for both teams.

Wexford 38%
Kerry 31%
75' - 90' Dominance Index

A high-risk final phase where any defensive lapse could lead to late drama and decide the match.

Wexford 48%
Kerry 32%

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wexford attacking → ← attacking Kerry

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wexford have found the net in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Kerry have conceded at least one goal in 79% of their last 29 fixtures.

Historical meetings between these sides average 3.20 goals per match.

Wexford remained undefeated in 3 of their last 5 overall matchups.

Kerry suffered defeat in 1 of their last 5 overall games.

Match Risk Analysis

Assessing potential disruptors and external variables affecting prediction reliability

Risk Level: Moderate
Risk Factor

Fatigue: Match timing requires careful team selection; potential roster adjustments may affect consistency.

Risk Factor

Standard league campaign fixture. Both teams have strong incentives to secure maximum points for table positioning.

Risk Factor

Match Intensity: High stakes fixture where discipline and tactical patience will be crucial factors.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

39 Points in last 5 30
1.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.88
1.75 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Cork City21163242:1151
2UC Dublin21113735:1936
3Bray2187639:3031
4Cobh Ramblers2194825:2931
5Wexford2176825:2927
6Kerry2167821:2525
7Longford2167821:2625
8Athlone2166919:2624
9Finn Harps21471019:3719
10Treaty United21381019:3317