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Whitby vs Ilkeston

England England

NPL Premier Division Turnbull Ground, Whitby
Our Tip

Match Events

52' Event
Phuthi J.
67' Event
Rose S.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The NPL Premier Division game between Whitby and Ilkeston finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Whitby.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Whitby
20%
Draws
42%
Ilkeston
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ilkeston

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Whitby haven't matched Ilkeston's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.8%
Whitby Clean Sheet 15%
Ilkeston Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Whitby Ilkeston
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 6 11
Draws 10 7
Losses 12 11
Goals Scored 1 1.24
Goals Conceded 1.36 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Ilkeston
2:0
Jan 13, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Ilkeston
1:0
Sep 6, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Whitby
0:1
Dec 14, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Whitby vs Ilkeston
0:0
Sep 7, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Ilkeston vs Whitby
5:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Whitby Compare

Top Goalscorer Phuthi J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Ilkeston Compare

Avg xG / game 1.42
Avg xA / game 0.87

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Whitby 31 / 100
Ilkeston 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Whitby Ilkeston

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Whitby scored in 71% of their last 28 outings.

Ilkeston let in goals in 69% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Whitby stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Whitby VS Ilkeston
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Whitby

(Home)
15 Aug
Whitby
2 : 0
Ilkeston
11 Aug
Whitby
0 : 2
Guiseley
08 Aug
Leek Town
1 : 2
Whitby
10 Jul
Bridlington Town
2 : 2
Whitby
25 Apr
Whitby
0 : 0
Cleethorpes
Page 1 of 6

Ilkeston

(Away)
15 Aug
Whitby
2 : 0
Ilkeston
11 Aug
AFC Emley
1 : 2
Ilkeston
08 Aug
Ilkeston
1 : 0
Stockton
28 Jul
Ilkeston
4 : 1
Basford Utd.
11 Jul
Worksop
3 : 1
Ilkeston
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cleethorpes 3 2 1 0 8:1 7
2 Warrington Town 3 2 1 0 6:2 7
3 Bury FC 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
4 Gainsborough 3 2 0 1 6:2 6
5 Avro 3 2 0 1 8:5 6
6 Alfreton 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
7 Ashton United 3 2 0 1 5:2 6
8 Whitby 3 2 0 1 4:3 6
9 Ilkeston 3 2 0 1 3:3 6
10 Redcar Athletic 3 1 2 0 2:1 5
11 Guiseley 3 1 1 1 5:4 4
12 AFC Emley 3 1 1 1 3:3 4
13 Hyde 3 1 1 1 2:4 4
14 Warrington Rylands 3 1 0 2 3:2 3
15 Curzon Ashton 3 1 0 2 4:5 3
16 Lancaster 3 1 0 2 3:6 3
17 Bamber Bridge 3 1 0 2 2:8 3
18 Leek Town 3 0 2 1 3:4 2
19 Stockton 3 0 1 2 1:3 1
20 Workington 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
21 Quorn 3 0 1 2 2:8 1
22 United of Manchester 3 0 1 2 1:7 1
Promotion - National League North 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division (Play Offs)