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Wil vs Aarau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Lidl Arena, Wil
Wil Logo

Wil

2 - 2
FT
Aarau Logo

Aarau

Our Tip

Match Events

5' Event
Dickenmann M.
Assist: Aliu I.
9'
Muslija G.
11' Event
Muller S.
(Penalty)
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League game between Wil and Aarau finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Wil
20%
Draws
44%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aarau

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Aarau come out ahead of Wil on wins alone.
  • Aarau are the model's pick here, at 70%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.8%
Wil Clean Sheet 12%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wil Aarau
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 11
Draws 6 7
Losses 13 11
Goals Scored 1.62 1.69
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.81 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Challenge League
Wil vs Aarau
2:2
Apr 25, 2026 Challenge League
Wil vs Aarau
2:2
Feb 7, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Wil
2:2
Oct 24, 2025 Challenge League
Aarau vs Wil
2:0
Aug 1, 2025 Challenge League
Wil vs Aarau
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wil Compare

Top Goalscorer Allou Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.39
Avg xA / game 0.91

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Dickenmann M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wil 14 / 100
Aarau 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wil Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aarau Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 3:5
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Aarau conceded in 86% of 29 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Wil found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Wil has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Wil VS Aarau
1.5 Goals Scored 1.63
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 100%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Wil

(Home)
01 Nov
Wil
0 : 3
Winterthur
23 Oct
Wil
2 : 2
Rapperswil-Jona
17 Oct
Bulle
0 : 1
Wil
09 Oct
Kriens
1 : 1
Wil
01 Oct
Altach
5 : 0
Wil
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
30 Oct
Xamax
1 : 3
Aarau
24 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
18 Oct
Aarau
2 : 0
Zurich
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
02 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Young Boys
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 12 8 4 0 23:5 28
2 Winterthur 12 7 3 2 26:11 24
3 Yverdon 12 6 4 2 23:14 22
4 Kriens 12 4 4 4 21:19 16
5 Xamax 12 5 1 6 16:20 16
6 Aarau 12 4 3 5 19:21 15
7 Etoile-Carouge 12 3 4 5 12:17 13
8 Rapperswil-Jona 12 3 2 7 18:25 11
9 Wil 12 2 5 5 18:27 11
10 Stade Nyonnais 12 2 2 8 12:29 8
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)