Sport Picks

Netherlands

Eerste Divisie 2025/2026 Koning Willem II Stadion

Jong AZ Alkmaar

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Willem II play Jong AZ Alkmaar in the Eerste Divisie 2025/2026. Willem II are favorites here. Recently, Willem II averaged 2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Jong AZ Alkmaar averaged 1.63 goals scored and 2 conceded. In past meetings, Willem II won 3, Jong AZ Alkmaar won 1, and they drew 1. Their last match on Apr 17, 2026 ended 3:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Willem II and 0.38 for Jong AZ Alkmaar. This points to a Willem II double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%

Willem II

15%

Draws

28%

Jong AZ Alkmaar

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Willem II

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

83% / High Confidence

Willem II picked up more points recently compared to Jong AZ Alkmaar.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 0.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 89%

Over 2.5 Goals 62%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 54%

Willem II Clean Sheet 32%

Jong AZ Alkmaar Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 80%

Second Half Goal 85%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Willem II	Jong AZ Alkmaar
Matches Played	29	27
Wins	18	9
Draws	4	3
Losses	7	15
Goals Scored	2	1.63
Goals Conceded	0.9	2
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.38	1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 17, 2026 Eerste Divisie

Willem II vs Jong AZ Alkmaar

Possession: 57% - 49% Cards: 1 - 1

3:0

Oct 20, 2025 Eerste Divisie

Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

Possession: 48% - 58% Cards: 2 - 2

4:0

Apr 12, 2024 Eerste Divisie

Willem II vs Jong AZ Alkmaar

Possession: 43% - 42% Cards: 1 - 4

4:1

Sep 29, 2023 Eerste Divisie

Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

Possession: 44% - 57% Cards: 3 - 3

0:2

Mar 6, 2023 Eerste Divisie

Jong AZ Alkmaar vs Willem II

Possession: 55% - 54% Cards: 1 - 4

2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Willem II Compare

Top Goalscorer Haen D.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Baartmans S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Jong AZ Alkmaar Compare

Avg xG / game 0.35

Avg xA / game 0.21

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Willem II 58 / 100

Jong AZ Alkmaar 27 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Willem II Jong AZ Alkmaar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Willem II Win (1)

Secondary Pick Willem II & Over 2.5

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +16.3%

2.04

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.79

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Willem II attacking → ← attacking Jong AZ Alkmaar

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Willem II scored in 90% of their last 29 games.

Jong AZ Alkmaar let in goals in 89% of their last 27 matches.

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Willem II went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Jong AZ Alkmaar lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

58 Points in last 5 30

1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.38

0.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Den Haag	38	29	2	7	90:37	89
2	Cambuur	38	23	9	6	75:48	78
3	Willem II	38	20	8	10	59:42	68
4	De Graafschap	38	18	9	11	74:58	63
5	Almere City	38	18	4	16	78:63	58
6	Waalwijk	38	16	10	12	71:59	58
7	Jong PSV	38	17	5	16	66:64	56
8	Roda	38	14	13	11	59:54	55
9	Den Bosch	38	14	9	15	65:69	51
10	Dordrecht	38	12	11	15	48:56	47
11	Eindhoven FC	38	14	5	19	51:69	47
12	Jong Utrecht	38	12	10	16	58:62	46
13	Venlo	38	13	6	19	50:58	45
14	FC Emmen	38	12	9	17	58:72	45
15	Vitesse	38	15	11	12	64:55	44
16	TOP Oss	38	11	11	16	54:64	44
17	Jong AZ Alkmaar	38	12	4	22	61:76	40
18	Helmond Sport	38	10	9	19	42:62	39
19	Maastricht	38	9	11	18	41:73	38
20	Jong Ajax	38	9	8	21	50:73	35