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Willem II vs Waalwijk Prediction & H2H Stats

Netherlands Netherlands

Eredivisie 2025/2026 Koning Willem II Stadion, Tilburg
Our Tip

Match Events

46'
Sub
Baartmans S. In: van Aalst U.
Out: Baartmans S.
46' Event
El Allouchi M.
Assist: Stam F.
51'
Besselink G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Eredivisie 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-1. Extra time or penalties follow.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

12%
Willem II
30%
Draws
58%
Waalwijk
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Waalwijk

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Willem II have won more games recently than Waalwijk.
  • Waalwijk are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Willem II have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Willem II, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Willem II Clean Sheet 10%
Waalwijk Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Willem II Waalwijk
Matches Played 35 28
Wins 21 10
Draws 5 12
Losses 9 6
Goals Scored 3.17 1.89
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Eredivisie
Willem II vs Waalwijk
1:1
May 5, 2026 Eredivisie
Waalwijk vs Willem II
0:1
Feb 8, 2026 Eerste Divisie
Willem II vs Waalwijk
2:1
Oct 17, 2025 Eerste Divisie
Waalwijk vs Willem II
2:3
Jan 26, 2025 Eredivisie
Waalwijk vs Willem II
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Willem II Compare

Top Goalscorer El Allouchi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Waalwijk Compare

Top Goalscorer Boetius J-P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.99
Avg xA / game 1.22

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Willem II 10 / 100
Waalwijk 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Willem II Waalwijk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Waalwijk Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Willem II scored in 89% of their last 35 outings.

Defensive concern: Waalwijk conceded in 86% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Willem II has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Willem II VS Waalwijk
1 Goals Scored 1.75
2.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Willem II

(Home)
19 Sept
Willem II
0 : 1
Sittard
15 Sept
Ajax
5 : 1
Willem II
11 Sept
AZ Alkmaar
1 : 1
Willem II
05 Sept
Willem II
0 : 3
Excelsior
30 Aug
Willem II
2 : 2
Heerenveen
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Waalwijk

(Away)
26 Sept
Roda
2 : 0
Waalwijk
18 Sept
Waalwijk
6 : 1
Maastricht
11 Sept
Jong Ajax
0 : 2
Waalwijk
04 Sept
Waalwijk
4 : 2
NAC Breda
28 Aug
Waalwijk
2 : 2
Jong PSV
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Roda 2
Waalwijk 3
TBD -
Willem II -
Den Bosch 2
Almere City 6
TBD -
De Graafschap -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Quarter-finals
Waalwijk 1
Willem II 2
Almere City 5
De Graafschap 3
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Semi-finals
Willem II 3
Almere City 0
TBD -
FC Volendam -
Final
Willem II 4
FC Volendam 3