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Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton

England England

FA Cup
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Wingate & Finchley play Carshalton in the FA Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wingate & Finchley averaged 1.23 goals scored and 1.67 conceded. Carshalton averaged 1.52 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. In past meetings, Wingate & Finchley won 2, Carshalton won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.44 for Wingate & Finchley and 1.81 for Carshalton. This points to a Wingate & Finchley double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

34%
Wingate & Finchley
33%
Draws
33%
Carshalton
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Wingate & Finchley

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • Wingate & Finchley picked up more points recently compared to Carshalton.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.44 vs 1.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 63%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 19%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64%
Wingate & Finchley Clean Sheet 11%
Carshalton Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wingate & Finchley Carshalton
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 8 7
Draws 7 11
Losses 15 11
Goals Scored 1.23 1.52
Goals Conceded 1.67 1.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Isthmian League Premier Division
Carshalton vs Wingate & Finchley
4:1
Dec 6, 2025 Isthmian League Premier Division
Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton
2:2
Sep 2, 2025 FA Cup
Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton
3:2
Aug 30, 2025 FA Cup
Carshalton vs Wingate & Finchley
0:0
Nov 5, 2024 Isthmian League Premier Division
Wingate & Finchley vs Carshalton
2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wingate & Finchley 33 / 100
Carshalton 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wingate & Finchley Carshalton

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wingate & Finchley or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +30.9%
3.85
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +10.3%
1.75
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wingate & Finchley attacking → ← attacking Carshalton

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wingate & Finchley scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Carshalton let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Wingate & Finchley went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Carshalton lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

31 Points in last 5 32
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 2.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63