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Stadium Background

Wollongong vs St. George City

Australia Australia

NPL NSW WIN Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Wollongong play St. George City in the NPL NSW. It looks like a close match. Recently, Wollongong averaged 1.28 goals scored and 1.22 conceded. St. George City averaged 0.86 goals scored and 1.39 conceded. In past meetings, Wollongong won 3, St. George City won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jul 5, 2026 ended 3:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.94 for Wollongong and 1.13 for St. George City. This points to a Wollongong double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Wollongong
27%
Draws
28%
St. George City
Draw rate projection: 27% Favored: Wollongong

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

77% / High Confidence
  • Wollongong picked up more points recently compared to St. George City.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.94 vs 1.13 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Over 3.5 Goals 27%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 42%
Wollongong Clean Sheet 21%
St. George City Clean Sheet 16%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 62%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Wollongong St. George City
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 15 8
Draws 5 8
Losses 12 12
Goals Scored 1.28 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.22 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 5, 2026 NPL NSW
Wollongong vs St. George City
3:3
Mar 21, 2026 NPL NSW
St. George City vs Wollongong
0:1
May 31, 2025 NPL NSW
St. George City vs Wollongong
1:1
Feb 19, 2025 NPL NSW
Wollongong vs St. George City
3:0
Jun 8, 2024 NPL NSW
St. George City vs Wollongong
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Wollongong Compare

Top Goalscorer Fujita Y.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Scott L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

St. George City Compare

Top Goalscorer Amin M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Khoury L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Wollongong 45 / 100
St. George City 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Wollongong St. George City

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Wollongong or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +15.2%
2.56
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Wollongong attacking → ← attacking St. George City

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Wollongong scored in 63% of their last 32 games.

St. George City let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Wollongong went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

St. George City lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

50 Points in last 5 32
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Marconi Stallions22164242:1452
2APIA Leichhardt22153445:2648
3Sydney Utd22143533:1745
4Rockdale Ilinden22113836:3136
5Sutherland Sharks22112935:2835
6Sydney FC U2322104831:3234
7Wollongong2295824:2632
8Western Sydney Wanderers U212285942:3129
9NWS Spirit22841024:2628
10Manly Utd2276923:2827
11SD Raiders22751029:3626
12UNSW22741130:3525
13St. George City2267922:3525
14Blacktown City22471127:3819
15St George Saints22611521:3619
16Sydney Olympic22431522:4715