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Workington vs Leek Town

England England

NPL Premier Division 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

26' Event
Campbell H.

AI Match Summary

Leek Town in this NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Leek Town.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

4%
Workington
6%
Draws
90%
Leek Town
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Leek Town

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Leek Town lately — more wins on the board than Workington.
  • Model gives Leek Town a 90% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Workington Clean Sheet 20%
Leek Town Clean Sheet 15%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Workington Leek Town
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 9 14
Draws 10 6
Losses 11 9
Goals Scored 1.25 1.5
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.75
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 25, 2026 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Leek Town
0:1
Nov 29, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Workington
2:2
Apr 12, 2025 NPL Premier Division
Leek Town vs Workington
1:0
Aug 17, 2024 NPL Premier Division
Workington vs Leek Town
1:1
Nov 9, 2019 FA Trophy
Leek Town vs Workington
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Workington Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Leek Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Campbell H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Workington 10 / 100
Leek Town 84 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Workington Leek Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick LEE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Workington found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Leek Town has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Workington stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Workington VS Leek Town
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 0.75
75% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Workington

(Home)
11 Jul
Barrow
2 : 0
Workington
25 Apr
Workington
0 : 1
Leek Town
18 Apr
Warrington Town
2 : 3
Workington
11 Apr
Ashton United
2 : 1
Workington
06 Apr
Workington
1 : 1
Cleethorpes
Page 1 of 6

Leek Town

(Away)
14 Jul
Leek Town
1 : 1
Macclesfield
25 Apr
Workington
0 : 1
Leek Town
18 Apr
Leek Town
3 : 2
Whitby
11 Apr
Leek Town
1 : 0
Prescot Cables
06 Apr
Stocksbridge
0 : 2
Leek Town
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Hebburn Town402310775:4179
2Hednesford402211762:3577
3United of Manchester402191065:4172
4Warrington Rylands401813959:4267
5Stockton4018121062:5063
6Lancaster4017111256:4562
7Gainsborough4016111350:4559
8Leek Town401771650:5258
9Cleethorpes4014131356:4755
10Ashton United4014111547:5453
11Ilkeston401571852:5452
12Bamber Bridge401481852:5250
13Guiseley401391846:5648
14Warrington Town4012121643:6348
15Hyde4011141558:6347
16Rushall4012111748:6147
17Whitby4010131743:5543
18Workington4010131743:5843
19Prescot Cables409151640:5042
20Morpeth401262238:5442
21Stocksbridge408122038:6536
Promotion - National League North (Main)
Promotion - NPL Premier Division 2025/2026 (Play Offs)