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Xamax vs Aarau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Switzerland Switzerland

Challenge League Stade de la Maladière, Neuchâtel
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Match Events

5'
Guzzo R.
33'
Bizzarri A.
40' Event
Abedini E.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League game between Xamax and Aarau finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Aarau.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

46%
Xamax
15%
Draws
39%
Aarau
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Xamax

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Xamax come out ahead of Aarau on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Xamax's way, sitting at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 91%).
  • History favors Aarau here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 91%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81.8%
Xamax Clean Sheet 11%
Aarau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xamax Aarau
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 12
Draws 3 7
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.67 1.8
Goals Conceded 1.93 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 30, 2026 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:3
Aug 28, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Xamax
2:1
May 1, 2026 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:3
Mar 21, 2026 Challenge League
Aarau vs Xamax
1:0
Nov 28, 2025 Challenge League
Xamax vs Aarau
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xamax Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Aarau Compare

Top Goalscorer Acquah D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Afriyie D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.65
Avg xA / game 1.01

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xamax 40 / 100
Aarau 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xamax Aarau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Xamax scored in 87% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Aarau conceded in 87% of 30 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Xamax remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Xamax VS Aarau
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
2.13 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 88%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Xamax

(Home)
30 Oct
Xamax
1 : 3
Aarau
23 Oct
Lausanne Ouchy
0 : 0
Xamax
18 Oct
Langenthal
2 : 3
Xamax
09 Oct
Xamax
3 : 0
Winterthur
02 Oct
Sochaux
2 : 1
Xamax
Page 1 of 6

Aarau

(Away)
30 Oct
Xamax
1 : 3
Aarau
24 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Etoile-Carouge
18 Oct
Aarau
2 : 0
Zurich
09 Oct
Stade Nyonnais
2 : 1
Aarau
02 Oct
Aarau
1 : 2
Young Boys
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Lausanne Ouchy 13 9 4 0 28:6 31
2 Winterthur 12 7 3 2 26:11 24
3 Yverdon 12 6 4 2 23:14 22
4 Kriens 13 5 4 4 22:19 19
5 Xamax 12 5 1 6 16:20 16
6 Aarau 13 4 3 6 19:24 15
7 Wil 13 3 5 5 21:27 14
8 Etoile-Carouge 12 3 4 5 12:17 13
9 Rapperswil-Jona 13 3 2 8 18:26 11
10 Stade Nyonnais 13 2 2 9 13:34 8
Promotion - Super League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion)
Relegation - Promotion League 2027/2028 (Main)