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Xelaju vs Malacateco Prediction & H2H Stats

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2025/2026 Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Jaen Y.
58'
Sub
Roskopf M. In: Lopez A.
Out: Roskopf M.
67'
Sub
de Oliveira C. In: Tebalan W.
Out: de Oliveira C.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2025/2026 game between Xelaju and Malacateco finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Xelaju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

29%
Xelaju
30%
Draws
41%
Malacateco
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Malacateco

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

29% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Xelaju come out ahead of Malacateco on wins alone.
  • Win probability leans Xelaju's way, sitting at 40%.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Xelaju Clean Sheet 68%
Malacateco Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xelaju Malacateco
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 12 7
Draws 9 7
Losses 11 15
Goals Scored 1.56 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Xelaju
2:2
Apr 6, 2026 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Malacateco
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Xelaju
1:0
Sep 29, 2025 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Malacateco
3:0
Jul 20, 2025 Liga Nacional
Malacateco vs Xelaju
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xelaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Jaen Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Malacateco Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xelaju 50 / 100
Malacateco 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xelaju Malacateco

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Xelaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Xelaju's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

Defensive concern: Malacateco conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Solid form: Xelaju remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Xelaju VS Malacateco
1.75 Goals Scored 1.13
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Xelaju

(Home)
27 Sept
Xelaju
2 : 3
Comunicaciones
24 Sept
Xelaju
4 : 0
Antigua
20 Sept
Suchitepequez
2 : 2
Xelaju
13 Sept
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Xelaju
11 Sept
Xelaju
0 : 0
Coban Imperial
Page 1 of 7

Malacateco

(Away)
27 Sept
Marquense
1 : 0
Malacateco
21 Sept
Malacateco
1 : 0
Deportivo Mixco
14 Sept
Municipal
2 : 2
Malacateco
11 Sept
Malacateco
0 : 2
Antigua
06 Sept
Malacateco
2 : 0
Suchitepequez
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Xelaju 22 11 6 5 34:19 39
2 Municipal 22 11 5 6 32:21 38
3 Deportivo Mixco 22 10 6 6 30:26 36
4 Comunicaciones 22 11 2 9 28:26 35
5 Antigua 22 9 7 6 34:29 34
6 Coban Imperial 22 8 8 6 29:22 32
7 Guastatoya 22 8 7 7 29:21 31
8 Marquense 22 9 3 10 25:29 30
9 Mictlan 22 7 6 9 25:36 27
10 Malacateco 22 6 4 12 19:25 22
11 Aurora F.C. 22 4 8 10 14:30 20
12 Deportivo Achuapa 22 5 4 13 17:32 19
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2025/2026 (Clausura - Play Offs)