Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Xelaju vs Xinabajul

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2024/2025 Estadio Mario Camposeco, Quetzaltenango
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Cabrera G.
28' Event
Cardoza E.
33'
Castaneda J.

AI Match Summary

The Liga Nacional 2024/2025 game between Xelaju and Xinabajul finished 7-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Xelaju.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Xelaju
35%
Draws
18%
Xinabajul
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Xelaju

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Xelaju carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Xelaju taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Xelaju Clean Sheet 68%
Xinabajul Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xelaju Xinabajul
Matches Played 35 28
Wins 15 6
Draws 10 8
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.83 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.26 1.71
Expected Goals (xG) 1.29 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 7, 2025 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Xelaju
2:2
Feb 3, 2025 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Xinabajul
7:2
Sep 8, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Xinabajul
2:0
Feb 29, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xinabajul vs Xelaju
0:0
Feb 2, 2024 Liga Nacional
Xelaju vs Xinabajul
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xelaju Compare

Top Goalscorer Cardoza E.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Baez P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.99
Avg xA / game 0.65

Xinabajul Compare

Top Goalscorer Chavasco G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Aquino D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xelaju 95 / 100
Xinabajul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xelaju Xinabajul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Xelaju Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Xelaju's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 35 recent games.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Xinabajul's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

Recent resilience: Xelaju stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Xelaju VS -
1.38 Goals Scored 0
1.38 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
50% Over 2.5 0%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Xelaju

(Home)
13 Sept
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Xelaju
11 Sept
Xelaju
0 : 0
Coban Imperial
06 Sept
Marquense
0 : 4
Xelaju
31 Aug
Xelaju
4 : 1
Deportivo Mixco
27 Aug
Xelaju
1 : 1
Luis Angel Firpo
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Xinabajul

(Away)
27 Apr
Comunicaciones
2 : 1
Xinabajul
24 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Guastatoya
20 Apr
Deportivo Mixco
3 : 1
Xinabajul
17 Apr
Xinabajul
0 : 0
Antigua
14 Apr
Xinabajul
1 : 1
Malacateco
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Municipal 20 10 5 5 26:18 35
2 Comunicaciones 20 9 6 5 27:24 33
3 Antigua 20 9 5 6 30:24 32
4 Coban Imperial 20 10 2 8 26:25 32
5 Malacateco 20 8 5 7 30:26 29
6 Guastatoya 20 8 5 7 21:22 29
7 Marquense 20 7 6 7 18:19 27
8 Deportivo Mixco 20 6 7 7 21:23 25
9 Xelaju 20 6 6 8 28:25 24
10 Deportivo Achuapa 20 5 4 11 18:23 19
11 Xinabajul 20 4 5 11 21:37 17
12 Zacapa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2024/2025 (Clausura - Play Offs)