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Xorazm Urganch vs Termez Surkhon - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Xorazm Stadium, Urgench
Xorazm Urganch Logo

Xorazm Urganch

1 - 0
FT
Termez Surkhon Logo

Termez Surkhon

Our Tip

Match Events

34' Event
Khoshimov U.
Assist: Abdukhamidov R.
47'
Sherbutaev K.
64'
Sub
Traore B. In: Akhrorov A.
Out: Traore B.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Super League game between Xorazm Urganch and Termez Surkhon finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Xorazm Urganch.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

16%
Xorazm Urganch
30%
Draws
54%
Termez Surkhon
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Termez Surkhon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Xorazm Urganch haven't matched Termez Surkhon's recent run of results.
  • 54% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Super League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 44%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32%
Xorazm Urganch Clean Sheet 23%
Termez Surkhon Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Xorazm Urganch Termez Surkhon
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 7 9
Draws 8 6
Losses 14 13
Goals Scored 1 0.86
Goals Conceded 1.48 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 28, 2026 Super League
Xorazm Urganch vs Termez Surkhon
1:0
Aug 8, 2025 Super League
Xorazm Urganch vs Termez Surkhon
2:2
Mar 16, 2025 Super League
Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch
0:2
Aug 6, 2024 Uzbekistan Cup
Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch
3:1
Oct 5, 2018 Pro Liga
Termez Surkhon vs Xorazm Urganch
6:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Xorazm Urganch Compare

Top Goalscorer Khoshimov U.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Termez Surkhon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Xorazm Urganch 33 / 100
Termez Surkhon 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Xorazm Urganch Termez Surkhon

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Termez Surkhon Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.60 goals.

Xorazm Urganch's goal record stands at 72% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

Defensive concern: Termez Surkhon conceded in 68% of 28 recent games.

Xorazm Urganch went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Xorazm Urganch VS Termez Surkhon
0.88 Goals Scored 0.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 25%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Xorazm Urganch

(Home)
07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2
Xorazm Urganch
21 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
1 : 3
Qizilqum
16 Sept
OKMK
2 : 1
Xorazm Urganch
10 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
0 : 0
Sogdiana
03 Sept
OKMK
1 : 0
Xorazm Urganch
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Termez Surkhon

(Away)
10 Oct
Qizilqum
0 : 0
Termez Surkhon
20 Sept
Termez Surkhon
1 : 0
Kokand 1912
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1
Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Bunyodkor
0 : 1
Termez Surkhon
29 Aug
Termez Surkhon
0 : 1
PFK Guliston
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 23 16 4 3 52:19 52
2 Pakhtakor 23 15 7 1 42:21 52
3 Navbahor Namangan 22 13 5 4 39:21 44
4 Nasaf Qarshi 23 10 7 6 35:22 37
5 Buxoro 23 11 4 8 35:31 37
6 Lok. Tashkent 22 10 5 7 36:28 35
7 OKMK 22 10 5 7 31:29 35
8 Din. Samarkand 23 8 6 9 34:36 30
9 Andijan 23 9 3 11 29:31 30
10 Qizilqum 23 9 3 11 23:30 30
11 Sogdiana 22 8 4 10 38:43 28
12 Termez Surkhon 23 7 6 10 19:28 27
13 Kokand 1912 23 5 8 10 22:30 23
14 Xorazm Urganch 23 5 7 11 20:34 22
15 Bunyodkor 23 7 1 15 23:39 22
16 Mashal Muborak 23 1 1 21 11:47 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)