Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Stadion Spartak, Semey
Sat, Oct 10, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Yelimay Semey host Aktobe in the Premier League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Aktobe have shipped 1.17 goals a game lately, while Yelimay Semey have conceded 1.38 and scored 1.48. Past meetings favor Yelimay Semey slightly — 3-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 30, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.88) point toward Aktobe. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Yelimay Semey
20%
Draws
47%
Aktobe
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Aktobe

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Aktobe carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Aktobe's way, sitting at 40%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 10%
Aktobe Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yelimay Semey Aktobe
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 11 14
Draws 9 6
Losses 9 9
Goals Scored 1.48 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.17
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 30, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
Aktobe vs Yelimay Semey
2:1
Mar 21, 2026 Premier League
Aktobe vs Yelimay Semey
1:4
Aug 10, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Aktobe
2:1
May 11, 2025 Premier League
Aktobe vs Yelimay Semey
1:0
Aug 31, 2024 Premier League
Aktobe vs Yelimay Semey
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yelimay Semey 26 / 100
Aktobe 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yelimay Semey Aktobe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Aktobe Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Yelimay Semey scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Aktobe has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

Recent resilience: Yelimay Semey stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Yelimay Semey VS Aktobe
1.13 Goals Scored 1.75
2 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Yelimay Semey

(Home)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
12 Sept
Yelimay Semey
2 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2
Kairat Almaty
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2
Yelimay Semey
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Aktobe

(Away)
18 Sept
Aktobe
2 : 2
Ulytau
12 Sept
Kaspij Aktau
1 : 2
Aktobe
05 Sept
Aktobe
1 : 0
Zhenis
30 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
2 : 1
Aktobe
15 Aug
Kaisar Kyzylorda
1 : 2
Aktobe
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)