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Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Stadion Spartak, Semey
Sun, Oct 18, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Yelimay Semey host Ulytau in the Premier League. This one's hard to separate. Yelimay Semey have averaged 1.5 scored and 1.39 conceded recently, against Ulytau's 1.03 scored and 1.31 conceded. Past meetings favor Yelimay Semey slightly — 2-1-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 1:0. xG projections (1.56 - 1.44) back Yelimay Semey to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Yelimay Semey
20%
Draws
29%
Ulytau
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Yelimay Semey

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Yelimay Semey have won more games recently than Ulytau.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
Yelimay Semey Clean Sheet 68%
Ulytau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Yelimay Semey Ulytau
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 9
Draws 8 9
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1.03
Goals Conceded 1.39 1.31
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Ulytau vs Yelimay Semey
1:0
Jul 12, 2025 Premier League
Ulytau vs Yelimay Semey
1:1
Apr 12, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Ulytau vs Yelimay Semey
0:3
Apr 6, 2025 Premier League
Yelimay Semey vs Ulytau
3:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Yelimay Semey 41 / 100
Ulytau 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Yelimay Semey Ulytau

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Yelimay Semey Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Yelimay Semey found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (28 games).

Defensive concern: Ulytau conceded in 72% of 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.25 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Yelimay Semey remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Yelimay Semey VS Ulytau
1.13 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Yelimay Semey

(Home)
17 Sept
Tobol
0 : 2
Yelimay Semey
12 Sept
Yelimay Semey
2 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
06 Sept
FC Astana
4 : 0
Yelimay Semey
31 Aug
Yelimay Semey
0 : 2
Kairat Almaty
16 Aug
Kaspij Aktau
2 : 2
Yelimay Semey
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Ulytau

(Away)
18 Sept
Aktobe
2 : 2
Ulytau
13 Sept
Ulytau
0 : 3
Altai
06 Sept
Tobol
3 : 1
Ulytau
29 Aug
Ulytau
3 : 0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
15 Aug
Kairat Almaty
3 : 1
Ulytau
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 26 19 4 3 51:18 61
2 Kairat Almaty 26 17 6 3 51:20 57
3 FC Astana 25 14 6 5 42:25 48
4 Okzhetpes 26 13 6 7 41:35 45
5 Aktobe 26 12 6 8 38:31 42
6 Yelimay Semey 25 10 8 7 35:33 38
7 Tobol 26 10 4 12 33:35 34
8 Zhenis 26 8 8 10 26:32 32
9 Ulytau 26 8 8 10 24:32 32
10 Kaspij Aktau 26 8 5 13 27:36 29
11 Ertis Pavlodar 25 6 8 11 26:34 26
12 Altai 26 6 7 13 26:36 25
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 26 4 12 10 22:33 24
14 Kyzylzhar 26 6 6 14 26:40 24
15 Atyrau 25 4 11 10 18:28 23
16 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 26 5 7 14 26:44 22
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)