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York City vs Crawley Town Prediction & H2H Stats

England England

EFL Cup York Community Stadium, York
Our Tip

Match Events

24' Event
Di Biase G.
Assist: Gordon K.
36'
Brookes B.
44'
Arthurs J.

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-2. This leg finished 0-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
York City
15%
Draws
12%
Crawley Town
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: York City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to York City lately — more wins on the board than Crawley Town.
  • York City are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • York City have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Crawley Town, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
York City Clean Sheet 19%
Crawley Town Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric York City Crawley Town
Matches Played 29 26
Wins 15 5
Draws 4 8
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.9 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.42
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 3, 2026 EFL Cup
York City vs Crawley Town
0:2
Mar 25, 2016 League Two
York City vs Crawley Town
2:2
Oct 31, 2015 League Two
Crawley Town vs York City
1:0
Apr 30, 2011 National League
Crawley Town vs York City
1:1
Apr 5, 2011 National League
York City vs Crawley Town
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

York City Compare

Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Crawley Town Compare

Top Goalscorer Di Biase G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

York City 85 / 100
Crawley Town 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
York City Crawley Town

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick York City Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: York City scored in 93% of their last 29 outings.

Defensive concern: Crawley Town conceded in 73% of 26 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Away concern: Crawley Town has suffered 4 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

York City VS Crawley Town
1.5 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

York City

(Home)
26 Sept
York City
3 : 0
Gillingham
22 Sept
York City
1 : 2
Rotherham
19 Sept
Chesterfield
2 : 0
York City
15 Sept
York City
1 : 3
Newcastle Utd U21
12 Sept
York City
4 : 0
Swindon
Page 1 of 6

Crawley Town

(Away)
22 Sept
Milton Keynes Dons
4 : 1
Crawley Town
19 Sept
Grimsby
2 : 0
Crawley Town
12 Sept
Crawley Town
1 : 3
Cheltenham
05 Sept
Accrington
3 : 2
Crawley Town
01 Sept
Northampton
1 : 1
Crawley Town
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
York City 0
Crawley Town 2
Tranmere 2
Rochdale 3