Sport Picks

Brazil

Amapaense 2025

Independente AP

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Ypiranga AP play Independente AP in the Amapaense 2025. It looks like a close match. Recently, Ypiranga AP averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.28 conceded. Independente AP averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. In past meetings, Ypiranga AP won 1, Independente AP won 2, and they drew 2. Their last match on Mar 13, 2026 ended 1:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.13 for Ypiranga AP and 1.63 for Independente AP. This points to a Independente AP double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%

Ypiranga AP

29%

Draws

36%

Independente AP

Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Independente AP

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence

Ypiranga AP picked up more points recently compared to Independente AP.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.13 vs 1.63 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 76%

Over 2.5 Goals 53%

Over 3.5 Goals 32%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

Ypiranga AP Clean Sheet 14%

Independente AP Clean Sheet 13%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 72%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Ypiranga AP	Independente AP
Matches Played	36	38
Wins	16	16
Draws	6	12
Losses	14	10
Goals Scored	1.64	1.55
Goals Conceded	1.28	1.18
Expected Goals (xG)	1.50	1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.63	0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 13, 2026 Amapaense

Independente AP vs Ypiranga AP

Possession: 47% - 45% Cards: 3 - 2

1:1

Apr 3, 2025 Amapaense

Ypiranga AP vs Independente AP

Possession: 49% - 55% Cards: 3 - 1

0:0

Feb 25, 2024 Amapaense

Independente AP vs Ypiranga AP

Possession: 54% - 44% Cards: 0 - 2

3:0

May 15, 2023 Amapaense

Independente AP vs Ypiranga AP

Possession: 51% - 43% Cards: 3 - 1

3:1

May 31, 2022 Amapaense

Ypiranga AP vs Independente AP

Possession: 48% - 50% Cards: 2 - 2

2:1

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ypiranga AP 34 / 100

Independente AP 35 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Ypiranga AP Independente AP

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Independente AP or Draw (X2)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +29.5%

3.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.9%

2.13

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ypiranga AP attacking → ← attacking Independente AP

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ypiranga AP scored in 69% of their last 36 games.

Independente AP let in goals in 68% of their last 38 matches.

Games between these two average 2.40 goals.

Ypiranga AP went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Independente AP lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

54 Points in last 5 60

1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.63

1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Trem	7	5	1	1	16:5	16
2	Oratorio	7	5	1	1	11:5	16
3	Independente AP	7	4	2	1	11:5	14
4	Santos AP	7	3	0	4	9:9	9
5	Cristal AP	7	3	2	2	13:7	8
6	Ypiranga AP	7	2	2	3	8:7	8
7	Portuguesa AP	7	1	2	4	5:9	5
8	Santana EC	7	0	0	7	4:30	0