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Zabkovia Zabki vs MKS Mlawa Prediction & H2H Stats

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group I
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Sobocinski M.
11' Event
Rojkowski T.
41' Event
Stryjewski Mi.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group I game between Zabkovia Zabki and MKS Mlawa finished 3-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward MKS Mlawa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Zabkovia Zabki
15%
Draws
34%
MKS Mlawa
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Zabkovia Zabki

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and MKS Mlawa come out ahead of Zabkovia Zabki on wins alone.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on Zabkovia Zabki taking it.
  • Regular III Liga - Group I form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors MKS Mlawa here — 2 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Zabkovia Zabki Clean Sheet 14%
MKS Mlawa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zabkovia Zabki MKS Mlawa
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 7 17
Draws 5 4
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.41 2.15
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 25, 2026 III Liga - Group I
Zabkovia Zabki vs MKS Mlawa
3:4
Nov 22, 2025 III Liga - Group I
MKS Mlawa vs Zabkovia Zabki
2:1
Aug 2, 2025 III Liga - Group I
Zabkovia Zabki vs MKS Mlawa
6:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zabkovia Zabki Compare

Top Goalscorer Sliwka K.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gadomski F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

MKS Mlawa Compare

Top Goalscorer Rojkowski T.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sobocinski M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zabkovia Zabki 84 / 100
MKS Mlawa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zabkovia Zabki MKS Mlawa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zabkovia Zabki Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 6.00 goals when they meet.

Zabkovia Zabki's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

MKS Mlawa has conceded goals in 73% of their last 33 outings.

Recent resilience: Zabkovia Zabki stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zabkovia Zabki VS MKS Mlawa
1.75 Goals Scored 1.5
1.75 Goals Conceded 3
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Zabkovia Zabki

(Home)
25 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
3 : 4
MKS Mlawa
18 Sept
LKS Lomza
0 : 2
Zabkovia Zabki
11 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
4 : 2
Tomaszow Mazowiecki
05 Sept
KTS Weszlo
2 : 0
Zabkovia Zabki
29 Aug
Zabkovia Zabki
2 : 1
Pelikan
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MKS Mlawa

(Away)
25 Sept
Zabkovia Zabki
3 : 4
MKS Mlawa
19 Sept
MKS Mlawa
4 : 1
Troszyn
12 Sept
Jagiellonia II
7 : 4
MKS Mlawa
06 Sept
MKS Mlawa
0 : 2
LKS Lodz II
29 Aug
Plock II
5 : 3
MKS Mlawa
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 KTS Weszlo 10 8 2 0 23:7 26
2 Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki 10 6 2 2 26:17 20
3 Suwalki 10 5 4 1 18:10 19
4 Pelikan 10 6 1 3 16:12 19
5 Plock II 10 5 3 2 22:17 18
6 Swit Mazowiecki 10 5 2 3 16:10 17
7 Zabkovia Zabki 10 5 1 4 19:18 16
8 Jagiellonia II 10 4 3 3 22:20 15
9 Warta Sieradz 9 4 2 3 17:15 14
10 Widzew Lodz II 9 4 1 4 20:17 13
11 Tomaszow Mazowiecki 10 4 1 5 20:21 13
12 LKS Lodz II 10 3 2 5 16:19 11
13 Olimpia Zambrow 10 3 2 5 20:26 11
14 Olimpia Elblag 10 3 1 6 14:20 10
15 MKS Mlawa 10 3 1 6 20:28 10
16 Troszyn 10 1 4 5 12:24 7
17 Lidzbark Warmimski 10 1 3 6 14:21 6
18 LKS Lomza 10 0 3 7 10:23 3
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)