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Zacapa vs Guastatoya

Guatemala Guatemala

Liga Nacional 2024/2025 Estadio David Ordoñez Bardales, Zacapa
Wed, Mar 5, 2025
VS
09:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zacapa host Guastatoya in the Liga Nacional 2024/2025. Guastatoya are expected to control this from the start. Zacapa have averaged 0.36 scored and 1.86 conceded recently, against Guastatoya's 1.4 scored and 1.09 conceded. Head-to-head, Zacapa have won 0 to Guastatoya's 0, with 5 draws. They last met on Mar 5, 2025, ending 0:0. xG projections (1.04 - 1.24) back Guastatoya to edge this. Away (2) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

6%
Zacapa
20%
Draws
74%
Guastatoya
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Guastatoya

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / High Confidence
  • Guastatoya carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular Liga Nacional 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Zacapa Clean Sheet 19%
Guastatoya Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zacapa Guastatoya
Matches Played 14 35
Wins 0 14
Draws 5 9
Losses 9 12
Goals Scored 0.36 1.4
Goals Conceded 1.86 1.09
Expected Goals (xG) 1.04 1.24
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 5, 2025 Liga Nacional
Zacapa vs Guastatoya
0:0
Jan 11, 2025 Liga Nacional
Guastatoya vs Zacapa
0:0
Oct 19, 2024 Liga Nacional
Zacapa vs Guastatoya
1:1
Aug 4, 2024 Liga Nacional
Guastatoya vs Zacapa
0:0
Feb 25, 2024 Liga Nacional
Zacapa vs Guastatoya
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zacapa 32 / 100
Guastatoya 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zacapa Guastatoya

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Guastatoya Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Guastatoya conceded in 77% of 35 recent games.

Zacapa's goal record stands at 29% scoring rate across 14 recent games.

Games between these two average 1.20 goals.

Zacapa went unbeaten in 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Guastatoya
0 Goals Scored 1.38
0 Goals Conceded 0.88
0% Over 1.5 63%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Zacapa

(Home)
24 Nov
Zacapa
1 : 2
Antigua
21 Nov
Zacapa
0 : 1
Deportivo Mixco
10 Nov
Coban Imperial
3 : 1
Zacapa
03 Nov
Zacapa
0 : 0
Comunicaciones
27 Oct
Xinabajul
2 : 0
Zacapa
Page 1 of 3

Guastatoya

(Away)
26 Sept
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Deportivo San Pedro
19 Sept
Comunicaciones
1 : 2
Guastatoya
13 Sept
Guastatoya
2 : 1
Xelaju
10 Sept
Suchitepequez
1 : 1
Guastatoya
06 Sept
Coban Imperial
0 : 1
Guastatoya
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Municipal 20 10 5 5 26:18 35
2 Comunicaciones 20 9 6 5 27:24 33
3 Antigua 20 9 5 6 30:24 32
4 Coban Imperial 20 10 2 8 26:25 32
5 Malacateco 20 8 5 7 30:26 29
6 Guastatoya 20 8 5 7 21:22 29
7 Marquense 20 7 6 7 18:19 27
8 Deportivo Mixco 20 6 7 7 21:23 25
9 Xelaju 20 6 6 8 28:25 24
10 Deportivo Achuapa 20 5 4 11 18:23 19
11 Xinabajul 20 4 5 11 21:37 17
12 Zacapa 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Liga Nacional 2024/2025 (Clausura - Play Offs)