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Zacatecas Mineros vs Tlaxcala

Mexico Mexico

Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026 Estadio Carlos Vega Villalba
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zacatecas Mineros play Tlaxcala in the Liga de Expansion MX 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Zacatecas Mineros averaged 1.54 goals scored and 1.81 conceded. Tlaxcala averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. In past meetings, Zacatecas Mineros won 3, Tlaxcala won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Jan 10, 2026 ended 4:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.46 for Zacatecas Mineros and 0.93 for Tlaxcala. This points to a Zacatecas Mineros double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Zacatecas Mineros
33%
Draws
28%
Tlaxcala
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: Zacatecas Mineros

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence
  • Zacatecas Mineros picked up more points recently compared to Tlaxcala.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.46 vs 0.93 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 56%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 85%
Over 2.5 Goals 56%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Zacatecas Mineros Clean Sheet 24%
Tlaxcala Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 77%
Second Half Goal 81%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zacatecas Mineros Tlaxcala
Matches Played 37 30
Wins 13 8
Draws 10 10
Losses 14 12
Goals Scored 1.54 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.81 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.29

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 10, 2026 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tlaxcala
4:1
Aug 3, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Zacatecas Mineros
1:1
Feb 9, 2025 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Zacatecas Mineros
3:3
Aug 24, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Zacatecas Mineros vs Tlaxcala
1:0
Apr 11, 2024 Liga de Expansion MX
Tlaxcala vs Zacatecas Mineros
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zacatecas Mineros Compare

Top Goalscorer Lopez F.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cervantes L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Tlaxcala Compare

Top Goalscorer Oliveira Silva C. H.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.78
Avg xA / game 0.48

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zacatecas Mineros 40 / 100
Tlaxcala 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zacatecas Mineros Tlaxcala

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Zacatecas Mineros or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26%
3.23
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12%
2.00
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Zacatecas Mineros attacking → ← attacking Tlaxcala

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zacatecas Mineros scored in 78% of their last 37 games.

Tlaxcala let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Zacatecas Mineros went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Tlaxcala lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

49 Points in last 5 34
1.63 Goals expected (xG) 0.86
1.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.29

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Tepatitlan de Morelos1475221:1026
2Cancun1474324:1725
3Club Atletico Morelia1472518:1223
4Atletico La Paz1457222:1222
5Jaiba Brava1463515:1521
6Zacatecas Mineros1463519:2021
7Tapatio1462628:2420
8Atlante1455421:1720
9Irapuato1462627:2420
10Tlaxcala1455416:1720
11Venados FC1444625:2516
12Alebrijes de Oaxaca1444620:2916
13Dorados de Sinaloa1434717:2813
14Correcaminos1433814:2712
15Leones Negros1425715:2511