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Zagorets vs Spartak Plovdiv

Bulgaria Bulgaria

Third League - South-East
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AI Match Summary

The Third League - South-East game between Zagorets and Spartak Plovdiv finished 1-4, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Spartak Plovdiv.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

17%
Zagorets
15%
Draws
68%
Spartak Plovdiv
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Spartak Plovdiv

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

68% / High Confidence
  • Zagorets haven't matched Spartak Plovdiv's recent run of results.
  • 68% — that's where the model lands on Spartak Plovdiv taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.4%
Zagorets Clean Sheet 10%
Spartak Plovdiv Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zagorets Spartak Plovdiv
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 9 17
Draws 5 2
Losses 15 9
Goals Scored 1.41 2.14
Goals Conceded 2.21 1.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 15, 2026 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Spartak Plovdiv
1:4
Feb 14, 2026 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Spartak Plovdiv
2:3
Aug 2, 2025 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Zagorets
0:0
Mar 8, 2025 Third League - South-East
Zagorets vs Spartak Plovdiv
2:0
Sep 4, 2024 Third League - South-East
Spartak Plovdiv vs Zagorets
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zagorets 10 / 100
Spartak Plovdiv 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zagorets Spartak Plovdiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Spartak Plovdiv Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 3.20 goals as a typical output.

Zagorets scored in 69% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Spartak Plovdiv conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Solid form: Zagorets remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Zagorets VS Spartak Plovdiv
1.25 Goals Scored 2.5
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Zagorets

(Home)
04 Oct
Zagorets
0 : 4
Rilski Sportist
26 Sept
Zagorets
0 : 3
Botev II
19 Sept
Neftochimic Burgas
2 : 0
Zagorets
12 Sept
Zagorets
4 : 3
Atletik Kuklen
05 Sept
Dimitrovgrad
2 : 0
Zagorets
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Spartak Plovdiv

(Away)
04 Oct
Spartak Plovdiv
1 : 0
Botev Ihtiman
26 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0
Rodopa Smolyan
19 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
1 : 4
Gigant Saedinenie
12 Sept
Maritsa Plovdiv
0 : 2
Spartak Plovdiv
05 Sept
Spartak Plovdiv
2 : 0
Rozova Dolina
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Krumovgrad 8 8 0 0 26:7 24
2 Maritsa Milevo 9 7 0 2 21:11 21
3 Spartak Plovdiv 8 7 0 1 20:10 21
4 OFC Haskovo 8 5 2 1 15:6 17
5 Yambol 1915 8 5 1 2 24:9 16
6 Gigant Saedinenie 8 4 1 3 17:14 13
7 Neftochimic Burgas 8 4 1 3 15:12 13
8 Sozopol 9 4 1 4 19:17 13
9 Rozova Dolina 9 2 6 1 14:13 12
10 Rodopa Smolyan 8 3 2 3 13:14 11
11 Zagorets 8 3 1 4 10:15 10
12 Botev II 8 2 3 3 13:15 9
13 Dimitrovgrad 9 2 2 5 12:16 8
14 Lok. Plovdiv II 8 2 1 5 10:21 7
15 Atletik Kuklen 9 2 1 6 10:22 7
16 Sekirovo Rakovski 8 1 2 5 13:24 5
17 Levski Karlovo 8 1 0 7 5:19 3
18 Maritsa Plovdiv 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Vtora liga (Main)