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Zalgiris vs FC Hegelmann

Lithuania Lithuania

TOPLYGA LFF stadionas
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Zalgiris play FC Hegelmann in the TOPLYGA. It looks like a close match. Recently, Zalgiris averaged 1.55 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. FC Hegelmann averaged 1.19 goals scored and 1.45 conceded. In past meetings, Zalgiris won 2, FC Hegelmann won 1, and they drew 2. Their last match on May 24, 2026 ended 1:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.50 for Zalgiris and 1.25 for FC Hegelmann. This points to a Zalgiris double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

38%
Zalgiris
31%
Draws
31%
FC Hegelmann
Draw rate projection: 31% Favored: Zalgiris

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

72% / Medium Confidence
  • Zalgiris picked up more points recently compared to FC Hegelmann.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.50 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 57%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Over 3.5 Goals 34%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 60%
Zalgiris Clean Sheet 19%
FC Hegelmann Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 72%
Second Half Goal 76%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zalgiris FC Hegelmann
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 13 9
Draws 5 11
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.55 1.19
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 TOPLYGA
Zalgiris vs FC Hegelmann
1:3
Mar 22, 2026 TOPLYGA
FC Hegelmann vs Zalgiris
0:0
Feb 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Zalgiris vs FC Hegelmann
1:0
Nov 2, 2025 TOPLYGA
Zalgiris vs FC Hegelmann
3:1
Aug 24, 2025 TOPLYGA
FC Hegelmann vs Zalgiris
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zalgiris Compare

Top Goalscorer Capan M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

FC Hegelmann Compare

Top Goalscorer Wesley
2 Goals
Assists Leader Njoya A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zalgiris 38 / 100
FC Hegelmann 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zalgiris FC Hegelmann

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Zalgiris or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +26.5%
3.33
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.7%
1.96
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Zalgiris attacking → ← attacking FC Hegelmann

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zalgiris scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

FC Hegelmann let in goals in 87% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Zalgiris went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

FC Hegelmann lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

44 Points in last 5 38
1.50 Goals expected (xG) 1.13
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.50

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Suduva1979321:1630
2Dziugas Telsiai1986528:2230
3Transinvest1885527:2229
4FK Kauno Zalgiris1877431:1528
5Zalgiris1984727:2128
6Banga1876519:1327
7FC Hegelmann19310620:2919
8FK Panevezys19541018:3419
9FA Siauliai19271018:3713
10Riteriai00000:00