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Zamudio vs SCD Durango

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Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Calderon E.
71' Event
Pison I.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 game between Zamudio and SCD Durango finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zamudio.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Zamudio
30%
Draws
47%
SCD Durango
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: SCD Durango

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • SCD Durango carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 44% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.8%
Zamudio Clean Sheet 17%
SCD Durango Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zamudio SCD Durango
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 7 10
Draws 5 8
Losses 18 12
Goals Scored 1.75 0.88
Goals Conceded 1.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.88 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zamudio vs SCD Durango
2:0
Sep 6, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Zamudio
1:1
Mar 10, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
SCD Durango vs Zamudio
2:1
Oct 21, 2017 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zamudio vs SCD Durango
0:0
May 14, 2016 Tercera RFEF - Group 4
Zamudio vs SCD Durango
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zamudio Compare

Top Goalscorer Calderon E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Pison I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

SCD Durango Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zamudio 36 / 100
SCD Durango 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zamudio SCD Durango

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DUR Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zamudio scored in 70% of their last 30 games.

SCD Durango has conceded goals in 67% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: Zamudio remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Zamudio VS SCD Durango
1.75 Goals Scored 0.88
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Zamudio

(Home)
09 May
UD Aretxabaleta
3 : 1
Zamudio
03 May
Zamudio
0 : 2
Zarautz KE
26 Apr
Zamudio
1 : 1
Santurtzi
16 Apr
Real Sociedad C
3 : 1
Zamudio
12 Apr
Zamudio
7 : 0
Pasaia
Page 1 of 6

SCD Durango

(Away)
09 May
SCD Durango
4 : 1
Santurtzi
03 May
Real Sociedad C
4 : 0
SCD Durango
25 Apr
SCD Durango
0 : 0
Pasaia
16 Apr
Lagun Onak
0 : 1
SCD Durango
11 Apr
SCD Durango
1 : 1
SD Deusto
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugalete 34 24 6 4 70:29 78
2 Leioa 34 18 7 9 50:34 61
3 Derio 34 17 7 10 54:40 58
4 Lagun Onak 34 17 6 11 54:34 57
5 Touring KE 34 16 9 9 47:35 57
6 Real Sociedad C 34 17 4 13 48:39 55
7 San Ignacio 34 16 7 11 37:27 55
8 Aurrera de Vitoria 34 16 6 12 42:41 54
9 Alaves C 34 15 8 11 57:40 53
10 UD Aretxabaleta 34 13 6 15 56:61 45
11 SCD Durango 34 11 11 12 35:36 44
12 Santurtzi 34 9 12 13 32:45 39
13 Eibar C 34 9 9 16 44:53 36
14 Pasaia 34 9 9 16 26:46 36
15 Anorga 34 11 4 19 37:59 34
16 Zamudio 34 9 6 19 42:59 33
17 Zarautz KE 34 8 6 20 30:60 30
18 SD Deusto 34 6 7 21 26:49 25
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 4 2025/2026 (Play Offs)