Sport Picks

Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Zarautz KE play Portugalete in the Tercera RFEF - Group 4. Portugalete are favorites here. Recently, Zarautz KE averaged 0.91 goals scored and 1.72 conceded. Portugalete averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. In past meetings, Zarautz KE won 2, Portugalete won 3, and they drew 0. Their last match on Feb 7, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.06 for Zarautz KE and 1.94 for Portugalete. This points to a Portugalete double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%

Zarautz KE

15%

Draws

62%

Portugalete

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Portugalete

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

88% / Very High Confidence

Zarautz KE picked up more points recently compared to Portugalete.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.06 vs 1.94 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 71%

Over 2.5 Goals 55%

Over 3.5 Goals 33%

Over 4.5 Goals 17%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 45%

Zarautz KE Clean Sheet 10%

Portugalete Clean Sheet 14%

First Half Goal 64%

Second Half Goal 67%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Zarautz KE	Portugalete
Matches Played	32	40
Wins	7	26
Draws	5	7
Losses	20	7
Goals Scored	0.91	1.75
Goals Conceded	1.72	0.9
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.00	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 7, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Zarautz KE vs Portugalete

Possession: 57% - 50% Cards: 3 - 0

0:1

Sep 27, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Zarautz KE

Possession: 40% - 46% Cards: 4 - 1

6:0

Mar 18, 2012 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Zarautz KE vs Portugalete

Possession: 43% - 46% Cards: 4 - 3

1:2

Oct 30, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Portugalete vs Zarautz KE

Possession: 52% - 49% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

Apr 21, 2011 Tercera RFEF - Group 4

Zarautz KE vs Portugalete

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 3 - 1

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zarautz KE Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Portugalete Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.71

Avg xA / game 1.04

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zarautz KE 23 / 100

Portugalete 59 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Zarautz KE Portugalete

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Portugalete Win (2)

Secondary Pick Portugalete & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +53.4%

6.67

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.2%

2.04

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Zarautz KE attacking → ← attacking Portugalete

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zarautz KE scored in 59% of their last 32 games.

Portugalete let in goals in 57% of their last 40 matches.

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Zarautz KE went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Portugalete lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

26 Points in last 5 85

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.88

2.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Portugalete	34	24	6	4	70:29	78
2	Leioa	34	18	7	9	50:34	61
3	Derio	34	17	7	10	54:40	58
4	Lagun Onak	34	17	6	11	54:34	57
5	Touring KE	34	16	9	9	47:35	57
6	Real Sociedad C	34	17	4	13	48:39	55
7	San Ignacio	34	16	7	11	37:27	55
8	Aurrera de Vitoria	34	16	6	12	42:41	54
9	Alaves C	34	15	8	11	57:40	53
10	UD Aretxabaleta	34	13	6	15	56:61	45
11	SCD Durango	34	11	11	12	35:36	44
12	Santurtzi	34	9	12	13	32:45	39
13	Eibar C	34	9	9	16	44:53	36
14	Pasaia	34	9	9	16	26:46	36
15	Anorga	34	11	4	19	37:59	34
16	Zamudio	34	9	6	19	42:59	33
17	Zarautz KE	34	8	6	20	30:60	30
18	SD Deusto	34	6	7	21	26:49	25