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Zebbug vs Msida

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2023/2024
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Match Events

34' Event
Perez J. M. A.
45' Event
Allan
54' Event
Mizzi A.

AI Match Summary

Zebbug in this Challenge League 2023/2024 matchup, with the score ending 3-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Zebbug.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Zebbug
30%
Draws
16%
Msida
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Zebbug

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Zebbug lately — more wins on the board than Msida.
  • Model gives Zebbug a 54% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Zebbug have won 3 of the last 4 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Zebbug Clean Sheet 10%
Msida Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zebbug Msida
Matches Played 39 30
Wins 12 3
Draws 8 2
Losses 19 25
Goals Scored 1.54 0.83
Goals Conceded 1.97 2.43
Expected Goals (xG) 0.85 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 17, 2024 Challenge League
Zebbug vs Msida
6:0
Nov 5, 2023 Challenge League
Zebbug vs Msida
3:0
Mar 16, 2014 Challenge League
Zebbug vs Msida
2:3
Nov 10, 2013 Challenge League
Msida vs Zebbug
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zebbug Compare

Top Goalscorer Perez J. M. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Allan
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.65
Avg xA / game 0.42

Msida Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zebbug 83 / 100
Msida 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zebbug Msida

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zebbug Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Msida's defensive record shows goals conceded in 97% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 4.00 goals per match.

Attacking prowess: Zebbug scored in 69% of their last 39 outings.

Zebbug has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zebbug VS -
0.5 Goals Scored 0
3.5 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
88% Over 2.5 0%
88% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Zebbug

(Home)
20 Sept
Naxxar Lions
3 : 1
Zebbug
13 Sept
Zebbug
0 : 4
Fgura
18 Apr
Zebbug
1 : 1
Marsa
11 Apr
Vittoriosa
0 : 1
Zebbug
04 Apr
Gudja
1 : 2
Zebbug
Page 1 of 8

Msida

(Away)
26 Apr
Msida
1 : 1
Attard
21 Apr
Msida
2 : 2
Fgura
14 Apr
Tarxien
3 : 1
Msida
07 Apr
Msida
1 : 3
St. Andrews
17 Mar
Zebbug
6 : 0
Msida
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Zabbar 15 10 3 2 21:9 33
2 Melita 15 9 4 2 32:21 31
3 Senglea 15 8 5 2 20:9 29
4 Marsa 15 8 4 3 32:17 28
5 Pieta 15 8 3 4 23:13 27
6 Zurrieq 15 8 3 4 18:17 27
7 Fgura 15 8 2 5 32:25 26
8 Lija 15 6 4 5 26:24 22
9 Swieqi 15 5 6 4 18:16 21
10 Tarxien 15 3 8 4 16:14 17
11 Zejtun 15 4 5 6 17:18 17
12 Luqa 15 4 4 7 21:24 16
13 St. Andrews 15 3 2 10 14:28 11
14 Zebbug 15 2 4 9 11:27 10
15 Attard 15 1 5 9 14:33 8
16 Msida 15 2 0 13 9:29 6
Promotion - Challenge League 2023/2024 (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League 2023/2024 (Relegation Group)