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Zebbug vs Mtarfa

Malta Malta

Challenge League 2025/2026 Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Opajobi O.
6' Event
Sultana N.
8' Event
Agius D.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League 2025/2026 game between Zebbug and Mtarfa finished 6-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zebbug.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

80%
Zebbug
20%
Draws
0%
Mtarfa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Zebbug

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / Very High Confidence
  • Zebbug carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Zebbug's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Zebbug Clean Sheet 68%
Mtarfa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zebbug Mtarfa
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 6 5
Draws 5 3
Losses 19 24
Goals Scored 1.03 0.69
Goals Conceded 2.4 3.38
Expected Goals (xG) 3.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 1, 2026 Challenge League
Zebbug vs Mtarfa
6:0
Dec 11, 2025 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Zebbug
4:1
Mar 8, 2025 Challenge League
Zebbug vs Mtarfa
0:2
Jan 25, 2025 Challenge League
Zebbug vs Mtarfa
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zebbug Compare

Top Goalscorer Opajobi O.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Sultana N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.69
Avg xA / game 1.75

Mtarfa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zebbug 95 / 100
Mtarfa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zebbug Mtarfa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ZEB Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Mtarfa let in goals in 94% of their last 32 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.50 goals when they meet.

Away concern: Mtarfa has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Zebbug found the back of the net in 63% of recent matches (30 games).

Scoring Trends

Zebbug VS Mtarfa
1.88 Goals Scored 0.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 5.13
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 75%

Recent Form & Match History

Zebbug

(Home)
18 Apr
Zebbug
1 : 1
Marsa
11 Apr
Vittoriosa
0 : 1
Zebbug
04 Apr
Gudja
1 : 2
Zebbug
15 Mar
Zurrieq
3 : 3
Zebbug
08 Mar
Zebbug
0 : 2
Mgarr
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Mtarfa

(Away)
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Mtarfa
0 : 1
Vittoriosa
15 Mar
Gudja
3 : 0
Mtarfa
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
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