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Zestafoni vs Matchakhela

Georgia Georgia

Liga 3 2023
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Matchakhela in this Liga 3 2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Matchakhela.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Zestafoni
35%
Draws
9%
Matchakhela
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Zestafoni

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Zestafoni lately — more wins on the board than Matchakhela.
  • Win probability leans Zestafoni's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Regular Liga 3 2023 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Matchakhela here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 79.4%
Zestafoni Clean Sheet 16%
Matchakhela Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zestafoni Matchakhela
Matches Played 34 34
Wins 9 8
Draws 12 6
Losses 13 20
Goals Scored 1.32 1.15
Goals Conceded 1.53 2.79
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 17, 2024 Liga 3
Zestafoni vs Matchakhela
3:2
Apr 25, 2024 Liga 3
Matchakhela vs Zestafoni
2:1
Nov 8, 2023 Liga 3
Zestafoni vs Matchakhela
1:2
Jun 10, 2023 Liga 3
Matchakhela vs Zestafoni
3:1
Jul 7, 2022 Georgian Cup
Matchakhela vs Zestafoni
4:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zestafoni 84 / 100
Matchakhela 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zestafoni Matchakhela

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zestafoni Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Matchakhela conceded in 88% of 34 recent games.

H2H data points to 3.80 goals as a typical output.

Zestafoni's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 34 recent games.

Recent resilience: Zestafoni stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Zestafoni VS Matchakhela
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
1.63 Goals Conceded 3
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Zestafoni

(Home)
07 Dec
Meshakhte Tkibuli
3 : 0
Zestafoni
29 Nov
Zestafoni
2 : 1
FC Tbilisi 2025
21 Nov
Merani Tbilisi
2 : 2
Zestafoni
14 Nov
Zestafoni
0 : 0
Merani Martvili
07 Nov
FC Gardabani
2 : 2
Zestafoni
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Matchakhela

(Away)
07 Dec
Matchakhela
1 : 8
Guria
29 Nov
FC Gardabani
6 : 1
Matchakhela
21 Nov
Matchakhela
0 : 10
Gori
14 Nov
Betlemi Keda
5 : 1
Matchakhela
07 Nov
Matchakhela
1 : 1
Iberia 1999 2
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Dusheti 30 21 5 4 66:21 68
2 Shturmi 30 21 5 4 67:27 68
3 FC Rustavi 30 19 4 7 63:31 61
4 FC Tbilisi 2025 30 19 3 8 54:35 60
5 Meshakhte Tkibuli 30 15 10 5 49:24 55
6 Orbi 30 15 5 10 56:41 50
7 Iberia 1999 2 30 12 9 9 45:26 45
8 Gori 30 13 4 13 46:48 43
9 Guria 30 11 6 13 44:55 39
10 Locomotive Tbilisi 2 30 10 5 15 50:42 35
11 Borjomi 30 11 2 17 50:78 35
12 Bakhmaro Chokhatauri 30 9 6 15 47:47 33
13 Zestafoni 30 6 11 13 33:46 29
14 Matchakhela 30 8 2 20 38:81 26
15 FC Merani-91 Tbilisi II 30 4 10 16 30:58 22
16 Chikhura Sachkhere 30 2 1 27 23:101 7
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2024 (Main)
Promotion - Crystalbet Erovnuli Liga 2 2023 (Relegation)