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Zhenis vs Tobol

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Premier League Astana Arena, Astana
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Match Events

12'
Sub
Cavnic N. In: Zuev A.
Out: Cavnic N.
27'
Imnadze L.
46'
Sub
Lobjanidze E. In: Merkel A.
Out: Lobjanidze E.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Zhenis and Tobol finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zhenis.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Zhenis
20%
Draws
44%
Tobol
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Tobol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

36% / Low Confidence
  • Zhenis haven't matched Tobol's recent run of results.
  • Model gives Zhenis a 36% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34%
Zhenis Clean Sheet 68%
Tobol Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zhenis Tobol
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 9 10
Draws 8 5
Losses 10 13
Goals Scored 1.19 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.33 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Zhenis vs Tobol
1:0
Aug 29, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Zhenis vs Tobol
1:1
Jun 29, 2025 Premier League
Tobol vs Zhenis
2:2
Jun 25, 2025 Kazakhstan Cup
Tobol vs Zhenis
2:1
Mar 8, 2025 Premier League
Zhenis vs Tobol
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zhenis Compare

Top Goalscorer Adilov A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Tobol Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zhenis 77 / 100
Tobol 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zhenis Tobol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Zhenis Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Tobol let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.

Zhenis scored in 70% of their last 27 games.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Zhenis has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zhenis VS Tobol
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1 Goals Conceded 1.25
50% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Zhenis

(Home)
15 Aug
Zhenis
4 : 1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan
02 Aug
Zhenis
0 : 0
Yelimay Semey
29 Jul
Kaisar Kyzylorda
3 : 1
Zhenis
26 Jul
Kaspij Aktau
3 : 2
Zhenis
18 Jul
Zhenis
1 : 1
Ulytau
Page 1 of 6

Tobol

(Away)
16 Aug
Ertis Pavlodar
0 : 2
Tobol
13 Aug
Tobol
1 : 2
Partizan
06 Aug
Partizan
3 : 0
Tobol
02 Aug
Ordabasy
2 : 0
Tobol
30 Jul
Tobol
2 : 1
FK Panevezys
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Ordabasy 22 16 4 2 43:16 52
2 Kairat Almaty 21 14 6 1 42:15 48
3 FC Astana 21 11 6 4 34:22 39
4 Okzhetpes 22 10 6 6 32:29 36
5 Aktobe 22 10 5 7 32:26 35
6 Yelimay Semey 21 8 8 5 31:26 32
7 Ulytau 22 7 7 8 18:24 28
8 Zhenis 21 6 8 7 21:24 26
9 Tobol 21 7 4 10 23:28 25
10 Kaspij Aktau 22 6 5 11 24:31 23
11 Kyzylzhar 22 6 5 11 24:32 23
12 Atyrau 21 3 11 7 15:21 20
13 Kaisar Kyzylorda 21 3 11 7 16:24 20
14 Altai 22 4 7 11 20:33 19
15 Zhetysu Taldykorgan 22 4 7 11 24:38 19
16 Ertis Pavlodar 21 3 8 10 20:30 17
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - First League 2027 (Main)