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Zira FK vs Neftci Baku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Zira Stadium, Zira
Our Tip

Match Events

4'
Mathew I.
26'
Guimaraes R.
35'
Badalov E.

AI Match Summary

The Premier League game between Zira FK and Neftci Baku finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Zira FK.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Zira FK
30%
Draws
47%
Neftci Baku
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Neftci Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Neftci Baku come out ahead of Zira FK on wins alone.
  • Neftci Baku are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Zira FK Clean Sheet 10%
Neftci Baku Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zira FK Neftci Baku
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 12 19
Draws 10 3
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.24 2.14
Goals Conceded 1 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 30, 2026 Premier League
Zira FK vs Neftci Baku
1:0
Apr 17, 2026 Premier League
Zira FK vs Neftci Baku
1:1
Jan 23, 2026 Premier League
Neftci Baku vs Zira FK
0:0
Dec 2, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Zira FK vs Neftci Baku
1:0
Oct 3, 2025 Premier League
Zira FK vs Neftci Baku
2:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zira FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Aliyev Q.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Neftci Baku Compare

Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zira FK 10 / 100
Neftci Baku 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zira FK Neftci Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Neftci Baku Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zira FK scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Neftci Baku has conceded goals in 62% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Zira FK has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Zira FK VS Neftci Baku
1.38 Goals Scored 2.63
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Zira FK

(Home)
10 Oct
Zira FK
1 : 1
Shamakhi
19 Sept
Turan
1 : 0
Zira FK
13 Sept
Zira FK
1 : 1
Qarabag Agdam
05 Sept
Sabah Baku
5 : 0
Zira FK
30 Aug
Zira FK
1 : 0
Neftci Baku
Page 1 of 6

Neftci Baku

(Away)
09 Oct
Neftci Baku
0 : 0
Sabah Baku
18 Sept
Gabala
0 : 3
Neftci Baku
11 Sept
Imisli FK
2 : 3
Neftci Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1
Safa Baku
30 Aug
Zira FK
1 : 0
Neftci Baku
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 7 5 1 1 18:5 16
2 Sabah Baku 6 5 1 0 14:1 16
3 Qarabag Agdam 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
5 Zira FK 7 3 2 2 8:9 11
6 Kapaz 6 3 1 2 6:7 10
7 Shamakhi 7 2 4 1 9:7 10
8 SumQayit FK 6 1 2 3 8:9 5
9 Gabala 7 1 1 5 3:11 4
10 Imisli FK 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
11 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 2:11 3
12 Araz PFK 7 0 2 5 5:15 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)