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Zumbi vs Alianca

Brazil Brazil

Alagoano 2
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Caua

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-0, with Zumbi advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

22%
Zumbi
28%
Draws
50%
Alianca
Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: Alianca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Zumbi come out ahead of Alianca on wins alone.
  • 50% — that's where the model lands on Alianca taking it.
  • Zumbi have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Zumbi, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Zumbi Clean Sheet 14%
Alianca Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Zumbi Alianca
Matches Played 34 25
Wins 18 7
Draws 8 3
Losses 8 15
Goals Scored 1.75 2.25
Goals Conceded 1 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.75 2.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.00 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 17, 2026 Alagoano 2
Zumbi vs Alianca
1:0
May 10, 2026 Alagoano 2
Alianca vs Zumbi
0:0
Apr 18, 2026 Alagoano 2
Alianca vs Zumbi
1:1
Sep 17, 2025 Alagoano 2
Zumbi vs Alianca
2:1
Oct 13, 2024 Alagoano 2
Alianca vs Zumbi
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Zumbi Compare

Top Goalscorer Caua
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.35
Avg xA / game 0.88

Alianca Compare

Avg xG / game 2.05
Avg xA / game 1.25

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Zumbi 23 / 100
Alianca 59 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Zumbi Alianca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ALI Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Zumbi found the back of the net in 74% of recent matches (34 games).

Defensive concern: Alianca conceded in 72% of 25 recent games.

Zumbi went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

H2H data points to 1.40 goals as a typical output.

Scoring Trends

Zumbi VS Alianca
1.75 Goals Scored 2.25
1 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Zumbi

(Home)
31 May
Sporting FC
2 : 2
Zumbi
24 May
Zumbi
0 : 2
Sporting FC
17 May
Zumbi
1 : 0
Alianca
10 May
Alianca
0 : 0
Zumbi
02 May
Miguelense
0 : 1
Zumbi
Page 1 of 7

Alianca

(Away)
17 May
Zumbi
1 : 0
Alianca
10 May
Alianca
0 : 0
Zumbi
02 May
Alianca
9 : 0
Jacioba
26 Apr
Sao Domingos AL
2 : 6
Alianca
22 Apr
Alianca
1 : 6
Sporting FC
Page 1 of 5

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Zumbi1
Alianca0
Sporting FC5
Miguelense0
Final
Zumbi2
Sporting FC4